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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (4991)	12/6/2001 3:08:54 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

We may disagree on the stock amrket, but we agree on gold. The metal continues to trade poorly, but the stocks (and especially the South Africans) are doing fine. My Fidelity Gold Fund (FSAGX) now is back to its peak price of the 9/11 aftermath even though POG has plunged about 20 bucks from the high.

To: isopatch who wrote (4991)	12/6/2001 3:40:55 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

re: maybe a final exhaustion spurt into early Jan? I think it may last longer than that. This vigorous "New Bull", (the SOX 50% above it's lows), is largely constructed out of Fed liquidity. The model here, is what happened in Y2K. The Fed pumped money in, the loose money sloshed around, and ended up in tech stocks and housing. But the Nas didn't peak in January 2000, although (as I recall) the Fed shut down the liquidity spigot right after the 1/1/00 non-event. There was a 3-4 month lag, before the peak effect. In the current pump-it-up spree, the spigot hasn't been turned off yet. So, let's wait till the Fed stops lowering rates, and shuts down the liquidity gusher. Then, let's wait another 2-4 months. Then exit long positions, and hedge the remaining long positions with put LEAPs.