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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (4996)	12/6/2001 3:51:06 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

The problem with your argument is that the bond vigilantes also see this excess liquidity and are dumping long bonds something fierce. High quality bond yields are surging and the S&P 500 now is heavily overvalued using the Fed model. Going long here is only for gamblers IMHO.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (4996)	12/6/2001 4:10:15 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

["The model here, is what happened in Y2K."] Jacob....Bingo ! Correctamundo you are. I just think that given that the liquidity -Fiat Pump has been under way for some time now - vs. the later Q4 Y2K pump job and given the $hitty Retail season that's soon to be reported... along with Argentina's inability to find anyone to either cry for it, or bail it out; along with Japan still teetering and perhaps the War on Terrorism overhanging the market like a Rogue Wave Tsunami on the horizon ... I think one can begin averaging into shorts & puts right here selectively a little sooner than your Y2K Deja Vu all over again model would indicate... but, being patient & waiting for the Bin Laden capture/death rally - which could be any day...before really piling on the shorts; is prudent imho. I still have seen NOTHING fundamentally, or technically that keeps me from anticipating DOW 6-7000 sooner, or later... now whether it takes 6 months, or 18 months - who knows.... Gold/Silver stocks; Cash (lots of it), Patience (lots of it) and a few shorts (that will ultimately once again be - lots of shorts).