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To: Mani1 who wrote (65290)	12/9/2001 6:24:08 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani: "All the indicators are still down if you do not count for the sharp downturn in September/October and the reversal in November." Not so...Most of the lagging indicators are down to be sure, but that should be no surprise...We are in a recession as defined by 2 successive quarters of negative GNP but those 2 successive quarters occurred almost 65 months ago...Inventories are the lead indicator in any recovery and in several pockets of the economy, inventories have not only been worked off but are strengthening...My guess is that the PC segment is one of those segments showing strength judging by the difficulty in obtaining product across some performance ranges...AMD's strengthening revenues would support the contention that recovery may well be underway... The fed has been more aggressive than at anytime in its history with downward rate adjustments at the rate of 1 per month this year and with an additional cut expected this week...A couple of maxims come to mind: Never fight the fed and historically Nov to Apr period is much stronger than the Apr to Nov period...

To: Mani1 who wrote (65290)	12/10/2001 2:11:46 AM
From: kapkan4u	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

<All the indicators are still down if you do not count for the sharp downturn in September/October and the reversal in November.> Good point. I think that many folks mistook a technical bounce from an extremely oversold situation, for the beginning of a new bull market and piled on. If you believe, as I do, that we are in a long bear market, the best strategy IMO is to buy 30 year US bond on margin. With 90% maintenance rate and sub 3% margin rates, one can collect almost 3% percent difference between them on a position 10x as large as the available cash. The prices are very attractive now as well. Kap