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To: kapkan4u who wrote (65328)	12/10/2001 5:36:35 AM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, Re: If you believe, as I do, that we are in a long bear market, the best strategy IMO is to buy 30 year US bond on margin. With 90% maintenance rate and sub 3% margin rates, one can collect almost 3% percent difference between them on a position 10x as large as the available cash. The prices are very attractive now as well. Be careful! There's nothing that says you can't have a bear market in an inflationary period. Greenspan and Co. are pumping $ into the market like there's no tomorrow. Like they did for the Y2K turn. Long bond yields will be the first indicator & can turn on a dime -- or less. tgptndr

To: kapkan4u who wrote (65328)	12/10/2001 10:22:42 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, one thing I certainly agree with in your economic forecast is that the yield bump in 10 yr. treasuries, and the fixed mortgage rates offered by the banks, is huge based on zero evidence of any overall pickup. I walked in to my bank to refinance my adjustable rate mortage and was discouraged by the high rates. They did have a pretty awesome PRIME-0.5% adjustable mortage with a lower limit of 5% (else it would be now at 4.5%!) There's basically no upper limit (18%), no fees whatsoveer either. So, given that the Fed will lower rates again this week (0.25% in my opinion), the Fed would have to raise rates 3 times before the mortgage would go above 5%. Petz

To: kapkan4u who wrote (65328)	12/11/2001 1:28:49 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Re <<I think that many folks mistook a technical bounce from an extremely oversold situation, for the beginning of a new bull market and piled on.>> I agree. I think everyone remembers vividly how he bull market feels and smells like and does not want to miss it. Market has priced in a recovery in early 2002 and I am not sure that is the case. If recovery is so imminent and close, why is the fed presumably lowering interest rates and why are the law makers mulling over a stimulus plan? Mani