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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (6042)	12/11/2001 8:42:36 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

What is your opinion on Major Drugs? Subject 52120 Don't hold back now.

To: Venkie who wrote (6042)	12/12/2001 12:18:43 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

Interesting how GE will be negatively impacted by the fallout in the merchant energy stocks especially CPN Herb Greenberg Ge 12/12/01 11:57 AM ET You can't overlook the importance of turbines to GE especially if orders start to get cancelled or postponed, OR if deliveries get put off. On December 12 Goldman Sachs said that for 2002 $1.8 billion to $2.6 billionof total net income growth for GE would include $900 million to $1 billion of growth from power systems. In other words, that's about HALF next year's expected total net income growth. hg Christopher Edmonds Power Names 12/12/01 11:34 AM ET Herb -- Exceptional point about the fallout from reduced power plant development. GE is the largest manufacturer of turbines. Mitsubishi and Siemens are also in the business. The Shaw Group (SGR:NYSE) would feel the impact as they have their fingers in a large percentage of all new power plant build outs. And, even parts suppliers will be impacted. Companies like Flowserve (FLS:NYSE) serve the power generation market and, according to one analyst, lists Calpine as one of its largest customers. Of course, the impact is dictated by two things: First, whether there is a material slowdown in plant build-outs. That seems likely but not even Calpine has admitted they intend to slow growth...yet! Second, the terms of the agreement. GE has several "firm" contracts which could make it difficult for companies like Calpine to cancel orders for turbines without significant cost. None Herb Greenberg ge, cpn 12/12/01 11:31 AM ET Interesting...April 19th press release form GE Power Systems: "Calpine to Purchase 46 General Electric Gas Turbines." That puts the total "in place for delivery of 203 turbines...This agreement marks the comany's second large volume turbine acquisition from GE and is an important component of Calpine's five-year strategic plan..." hg Herb Greenberg domino effect 12/12/01 11:12 AM ET Just pinged by a hedge fund manager with this: "First there was Enron. That led to Calpine. Where does Calpine lead?" I did have to stop and think; it's early out here. Suppliers of power generation equipment. (Like GE?) It's an important question because in 1998 Calpine spent $98 million on capex. In 1999, $930 million. In 2000, $3 billion. So far this year (through the nine months) $4.47 billion. For what it's worth. hg