Still 2 predictions holding true: The Saudii Prince is a Friend to US, and as the markets and then the economy recovers from this 2nd Greenspan induced recession, the ownership of America will have changed. Think of all who sold or were forced to sell, and who bought when they were selling.
It all reminds me of Jimmy Stewart in "It's a Wonderful Life" when he is faced with a bank run on the Bailey Savings and Loan, trying to explain to the panicked crowd, "Don't you see, Potter isn't selling, he's buying". Greenspan is worse than Potter, when I think of the high tech prosperity that he destroyed FOR NO REASON.
This is the problem with the Federal Reserve, the World Bank, the IMF International Monetary Fund, the WTO World Trade Organization, and the like, they are not democratic, they are not decentralized, they are CENTRAL CONTROL just like MOSCOW CENTER was.
Going from over 6% down to unde 2% finally, to 1.75 and 1.50% for emergency loans/discount window for banks, FINALLY puts us into OPEN CARRY as Larry Kudlow had predicted we needed. Rates under the 2 year Treasury rates, so Banks could buy Treasuries with borrowed Fed funds they could pay back at a small profit, use them as their required BANK RESERVES and loan out cash to all those desperate businesses on MAIN STREET to spur on the economic recovery. Greenspan is or was chasing a potential depression.
All the rate cuts before now were meaingless because they did NOT achieve OPEN CARRY. Greenspan could have done this at 4% if he had done it quick enough to achieve OPEN CARRY way back up at that rate. I beleive everyone now agrees with my theory that the RATE HIKES almost 2 years ago were not warranted, and were signs of either incompetence or otherwise proff that Greenspan should have resigned then. Even on recovery, Greenspan will go down as the biggest failure since Hoover's banker watching the Stock Crash and birth of the last Great Depression.
At least America is United. At least Bush is proving leadership, as Cheney stayed out of the early front stage. At least Congress, despite Dashel, will push forwrad tax reform, stimulus packages that will stablize the recovery and build a foundation for future prosperity. The markets, as we note, are starting their recovery sooner than the economy, as the worst economic numbers, such as 1.2 million unemployed (431K this past month), start to bottom and move behind a forward looking market. But that still leaves the questions open. What else was involved here?
Lower oil prices, allowed the Federal Reserve to remain stubborn, as our friend the Saudii Prince did not cut production at the prior last 2 OPEC meetings, only this last one. That is the proof of the bottom. The price of Oil went from high prices last year, slowly to lower prices just recently really, while the price of Greenspan's CENTRAL CONTROL over the dollar by STUBBORNLY kept Fed Rates (FOMC rates) above OPEN CARRY as the economy and the markets fell all the way into the Abyss. I guess Greenspan showed them. What an ignorant. He showed us too, he showed us that no unaccountable Federal Reserve should be allowed to do this ever again. He made OPEC blink, just like Kennedy made the Russians blink as we narrowly escaped nuclear armaggedon during the Cuban Missle Crisis. The price of Currency. OPEC has an oil currency, and the US has a dollar currency. Granted, an economic recovery would not be possible unless oil was cheaper, but now, look back. Who made the price oil go up in the first place? Greenspan caused OPEC to raise the price of oil, because Greenspan had raised the price of money by hiking Fed rates FOR NO REASON all the way over 6%, causing the markets to crash, causing the economic collapse and 2nd Greenspan induced recession, all in the first place. Don't forget that.
So the Saudii Prince has proven to be our friend. Meanwhile, Mom and Pop have lost their 401K and others have lost most of the value of their portfolios, lost their jobs, and more importantly, Greenspan caused high tech to delay building the super high tech world we all watched unfold. Sure there were dot com bombs that would have bombed anyway, but for each of those, I beleive there were 10 good companies with great ideas and great high tech innovation products that would have added to the prosperity of each of us, increasing productivity and increasing the GDP Gross Domestic Product, and by the way, increase tax revenues from all that income and efficiency. Now others own America. Now others bought up these patents from crushed companies cheap. Bill Gates for one is still here, and richer. I do not begrudge him, its the old CENTRAL CONTROL freaks, those banker friends of Greenspan, that made bad bad banking bail out and hand outs to corrupt asian banks (remember the Asian contagion, the Asia flu from their failing banks, as communist china just started devouring investment money and whole mindless shortsighted American industrial and Fortune 1000 company executives moved entire infrastructure, factories and jobs to communist chinese slave labor factories?
This is where we are now. Helping Communist China with the WTO etc, only hurts our friends, like Japan, like South Korea, like the Phillipines, and south east asia. Now I will make a prediction. The Saudii Prince is our friend. HE is not Greenspan's friend. Greenspan is not our friend, nor is he a Friend to the Saudiis. The future will depend on whether the Saudiis and Pakistaniis can build friendships in India and with our abandoned friends in southeast asia. It will be communist chinese slavery and central control, OR it will be a more democratic South Asian and Southeast Asian world. We need to help our Friends, like the Saudii Prince stop the extremism like Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda and other islamic fundamentalist terrorists push on muslims everywhere. Communist China gave arms to these Afghans and terrorists in Kashmir and Pakistan, all to destabilize and eventually control the OIL "silk" road in this region. Help Saudi Arabia help US. Without Peace and Democracy there, Iran will remain a problem to peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan and Kashmir and India. This only plays into the hands of the likes of Communist China, which, it should be noted, funds the islamic terrorists in the Southern provinces of OUR Phillipines. To quote General MacArthur, we will return.
It will be a more democratic decentralized individualism empowered world.
As for the UN in afghanistan. As long as they can shoot to kill, instead of stand by as blue helmet observers.
It would be nice for others to shoulder some of the costs of this war on terrorism. Let them surrender to the Saudiis, the trial and beheading will be swifter than anyone else taking these terrorists...however, I feel as hard as it is, we should keep to the high ground, not just militarily but also morally. If they are armed or shooting, kill them, but if they are prisoners, then treat them so under the Geneva Convention.....we did the same for NAZI and Japanese POWs you know. Military tribunals or any other kangaroo court is not justice, it is not the moral high ground, it is an admission of weakness. If a nation must use the death penalty, and can not keep a prisoner imprisoned for life, then that is indeed a weak nation. The weak, like the terrorists, kill, because it is easier. No one said this was going to be easy. We are strong, we do not need to do what is easy, and signal weakness.
Our Code of Conduct should be the same whether we are winning or losing. Do not forget Korea and Vietnam, where, despite military setbacks, I think we still proved we had the moral high ground, we prosecuted our own for Mai Lai. Even there we were dealing with narcotic drug smuglers more than we were dealing with the Viet Cong or North Vietnamese Army NVA. In Afghanistan, likewise, Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda are opium smugglers at heart and should be treated as such. Our friends are with US. What really has China done in this war except cheap talk? What has Greenspan done except try to cover up his own failure? They can not stop technology giving US individuals more power, as we move to a more democratic and decentralized world. I buy stocks that fit this fact.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball
Still buying and holding PALM, HAND, EMC, NTAP and others. |
