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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (849)12/12/2001 2:14:51 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 39344
 
<doomsayers insisted that SA would fall apart>

Appears the leadership has been excellent so far. But, aren't the deprived classes getting impatient? Fairly strong radical element in the ANC is there not?



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (849)12/12/2001 2:56:31 PM
From: Don Lloyd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
hb -

...note however that there is a global trend toward widening income gaps between the lower and higher income strata. that's a side effect of the Kondratyev autumn that has ended in '98...

In part, this gap is entirely statistical in nature. If ten people each repeatedly flip a coin and accumulate the total of heads, the gap in heads count (g) between the individuals will strongly tend to continue to grow as the number of trials builds up. Far more important is what actually happens to the incomes of specific individuals over time. The significance of the gap is primarily in its use as a political weapon to divide and sow envy and distrust for political advantage.

Regards, Don



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (849)12/12/2001 9:21:10 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
re: potential for civil unrest in SA:

IMO, the effect of AIDS is going to overwhelm all others, when looking at the future of that country. The response of the SA government to this demographic catastrophe, has been dysfunctional in the extreme. There was an excellent series in the NY Times about this, recently. Denial, blaming, anger, and a near-total absence of any organized effort to change sexual behavior among the general population, this has been the official response, in South Africa as everywhere on that continent.

The only analogy to what is happening in non-Muslim Africa (a more accurate term than sub-Saharan Africa) today, is the Black Death in Europe, during the Middle Ages.