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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (12779)	12/12/2001 7:46:19 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

why ?

To: orkrious who wrote (12779)	12/12/2001 8:47:06 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

have put that link in my storage thread.Mr.Heinz Blasnik at his best.Max

To: orkrious who wrote (12779)	12/12/2001 9:23:04 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

I disagree with some of the detail of Heinz model, though in general it agrees somewhat with my long term scenario. I have already "dubbed" the current situation a double dip recession, but I fear that Heinz discounts the impact of more than $200 B (probably more) in fiscal stimulus (both from actual tax reduction, expenditures for "waring" and another $50 B or so in disgorgements from insurance companies), as well as the massive liquidity creation during the last three months. I believe that this may delay the second shoe (which I have termed in the past "the consumer recession"). If there were drastic signs that consumers are no longer responsive to such stimuli, fine, but the recent surge in automotive sales indicates to me that consumer are still reacting to such stimuli, and will retrench only later, when liquidity will start to dry and the stimulus impact will be reigned in (as Heinz correctly points out, by over extension of consumer debt). Thus, before we go into another major bear move, I still expect the first half of next year to be relatively bullish (after, of course, we pay the piper with a retrenchment of one kind or another). The next economic expansion may not be long, nor particularly robust (3.5% to 4% at its peak in maybe 3 quarters?). Zeev