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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (17320)	12/20/2001 4:48:43 AM
From: techreports	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197321

My sense is that Verizon Wireless wants to get as much coverage and capacity under their belt as possible before they IPO, and their wireless division becomes subject to sharper shareholder scrutiny, as PCS is now. When spectrum is available you go for it or lose it. Even if you are destroying shareholder value? I disagree. I'm sure many of the euro carriers are wondering why they spent 90 billion on spectrum. Follow the herd and you'll get yourself killed. Everyone wants spectrum, I doubt Verizon will be able to find value with their current investment. The lifting of the spectrum cap in the US really changes the paradigm here. At the end of this decade, I'm reasonably confident that Verizon will be around as will AWS who has more spectrum than any other carrier. I'm less confident about PCS. ATT wireless and Verizon have enough spectrum to last a decades. Sprint has a lot of spectrum, but maybe not enough to last 2 decades. Here's a thought, when the government finds more spectrum to auction off, you think ATT and Verizon will waste billions more to buy spectrum they might not need until 2025? Probably not. Hmmm...less demand for spectrum means lower prices. Follow the herd and you'll get killed. Sprint will pay much less for future spectrum than ATT or Verizon if these companies have enough to last decades. Verizon (employing the same technology, and alternatively another flavor of it) is most certainly better equipped to deal with that paradigm shift. Ya, but it'll take years before Sprint hits a wall. I wouldn't buy Verizon just because they have enough spectrum to last more than a decade. Obviously, data use or new uses for cell phones could increase cell phone penetration and Sprint may find its self in a fix, but I'm sure they've thought this through.