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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milo_morai who wrote (65614)	12/13/2001 6:53:55 PM
From: chuckles58	Respond to of 275872

"What makes you think they can deliver volume? P4 above 1.5Ghz ia limited and 2.0Ghz is non-existent." In that case, Prudential may need to downgrade Intel too, then here we go again. Wait, that would be bad news for AMD too. ... Wasn't it just last December with the warnings. This Mosesman guy must not have paid any attention to AMD's guidance last week. I'm pretty sure he was one of the analysts that let his assistant participate in 3Q CC. With all these analysts get paid, you'd hope they were a little more informed. It may very well be a conspiracy theory.<ggg> OT, I moved back into COVD last week (average cost of $.82) in contemplation of Chapter 11 reorganization news. Their bondholders accepted the prenegotiated plan, so it will emerge BK 12/20/01 without its 1.4B debt. It was up $.77 to $1.52. It hit it's high of $1.75 when I was at lunch. Very nice distraction from AMD's downgrade and $2.13 drop. I've already moved some of my COVD money back to AMD (twice the shares I sold this Monday for my last COVD purchase). CB

To: milo_morai who wrote (65614)	12/13/2001 7:25:08 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

milo: "What makes you think they can deliver volume? P4 above 1.5Ghz ia limited and 2.0Ghz is non-existent." * Downgrading AMD to Sell from Hold based on our belief that current demand strength is more related to Intel P4 shortages rather than true demand for the Athlon XP. Now that is funny...Record AMD units shipped and record AMD PC processor revenues in q4, and this guy has concocted the theory that twists such an outcome in such a dismal environment into a negativer for AMD...My goodness, if INTC can't with all the ballyhoo and hoopla around the P4 over the past 12 months, produce enough P4 to feed demand with all their fab space, one might more readily conclude that INTC is suffering very serious problems with the P4 launch...Either serious production problems exist or PC demand has increased phenomenally in q4 to enable absorption of the output of "the fastest ramp in INTC's history" and at the same time absorb record uniots of AMD's Athlon...My guess is the formewr, given that INTC is nowhere close to producing record units in q4...Such a crock from Prudential, imo... * P4 shortages are likely to abate in Q1 and will likely lead to market share losses and/or ASP pressure for AMD for the next several quarters. Is Mr. Gelsinger feeding this guy??? Sounds like the same tune we heard from him when P3 was bumping its head at 700 MHz...Did this Prudential guy miss the P3 fiasco 'cause the scripting has all the same earmarks... * While we believe AMD has the smallest processor die sizes and excellent price/performance, our concern is in the company's likely inability to control its processor pricing segmentation model. Once again, a major cost structure advantage by AMD has been twisted into an AMD negative...This guy'd be funny if it weren't for today's response to such quackery... * We maintain our $10 price target. he,he,he... "Intel (INTC--$34.08; Buy)" he, he, he Summary: Did INTC give this guy a 1.4 gig P4 (trouble manufacturing anything faster???) to write such dribble???

To: milo_morai who wrote (65614)	12/13/2001 10:45:34 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Milo, What makes you think they can deliver volume? P4 above 1.5Ghz ia limited and 2.0Ghz is non-existent. Q1 demand will most likely be lower than Q4, which alone could bring supply and demand for P4 into balance. But Intel can maintain their existing .18u production and suplement it with new .13u production of Northwood. Northwood will get all the premium $$$ Intel needs ($300 and up chips) while the prices of 2 GHz and below will be cut to $200 and below, or even $150 and below. So suddenly, Athlon prices will be (from highest speed grade to lowest: $140, $119, $107, rather than the current pricing of $250, $185, $140. The unit volume of chips overall will go down, and even if relative market share does not change, AMD will be facing lower ASPs and lower units, resulting in poor Q1 results. What would change these prospects if .13u came on-time in Q1, including desktop, early enough to make a contribution. Chances of this are slim. The best we can hope for is some mobile chips late in Q1, desktops in mid Q2. Joe