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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (26048)	12/14/2001 5:07:49 AM
From: Robert Scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

1980-2 was left out because those recessions were in large part to fight rampant inflation of over 14% in the 1980 recession and over 10% in the 1982 recession - the long bond was over 10% and 14% respectively - a much different period than this time. Even if you want to use them, the Nasdaq rose over 70% within 12 months from the recession low in 1980 and, in the case of the 1982 recession, over 50% in 12 months from the recession low with a total of 90% 3 months later. So again, we get substantial gains following recessions and the runup on average begins during them. Actually 1980 and 1982 are the exceptions. The market low around the 1980 recession was 1 month before it began and for the 1982 recession was 4 months after it ended. We are in the 6th month of this one and they have lasted 6-9 months since WWII. We may indeed have sluggish growth following this recession - that also happened following the 1990 recession. The low was hit in the 4th month of that recession and I'll take the gains from there anytime. Incidentally, the reason we picked the 1990 and 1974 recessions was that 1990 was the only other recession in this bull market and 1974 was a very severe one. I'm not sure what point you are making about unemployment. My point is that people who use the climbing unemployment rate as a reason not to be in the market or to short it have missed huge gains or been slaughtered. That's what the history shows.