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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Scott who wrote (26049)12/14/2001 11:24:33 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237
 
Since you're plotting 24-month return, inclusion of the 1980 recession has the rate of return for the SPX regressing to zero on the right side of the graph. The 30-year treasury bond wasn't available in 74, and inflation then was also over 10 percent. I don't see the unemployment rate as a rationale for being in or out of market either, especially regards the intermediate term.



To: Robert Scott who wrote (26049)12/14/2001 12:07:17 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52237
 
We are in the 6th month of this one and they have lasted 6-9 months since WWII.

recessions since WWII have averaged 10.4 months. in the 90 years preceding WWII they averaged 21 months. the current recession may have more in common w/pre-war recessions since it was induced by a burst capex bubble, as opposed to inflationary pressures counteracted by an aggressive Fed.


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