Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25255)	12/14/2001 5:07:34 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Heinz, U.S. household liabilities-to-assets hit a new postwar high in the third quarter; first time since 1994, I believe. I'm willing to bet that this one will NOT be resolved by higher equity prices. -g- Hope you're doing well. My portfolio's set for armageddon - and doing very well, which worries me. -ng- Best, Paul

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25255)	12/15/2001 11:06:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Heinz- If I may ask... What is your view of interest rates? I'm torn, because I recognize the massive print job going on, and likely Greenie will continue to use this tactic (maybe not Fed funds, but daily instruments), since he has no other means at his disposal...normally, one would think higher rates going forward a given. However, the giant sucking sound that a crash of the debt bubble would make COULD dwarf any efforts by the Fed to reinflate...I believe you've made reference to this- past a certain point, Fed (action) become largely irrelevant...ant vs. elephant. Japan part deux. Throwing in the mix the massive gvt. borrowing we'll see on the Federal level over next few years, pressuring yields....and I'm pretty confused about whether 10 year rates are going to go up/down or something else over next few months/year. How to juggle these various balls? Any thoughts appreciated...especially as it relates to mortgages-g Also, Diane Swonk, fairly reknown economist in U.S., argues that we will have a decent recovery next year, in part becauses inventories (she spoke directly about autos, but made reference to other areas of the economy) are so "low" (her words) due to inventory drawn down of last few months, and although final sales may not significantly increase in next few months, inventories will get replenished, and that will lead to good sales for many producers (ie. autos, etc.). In my mind, her view would only delay impact (double-dip recession?), and leave manufacturers/suppliers in a low demand/bloated inventory position again, by end of next year....however, if Swonk is right, we could see some decent growth number by middle of year, and I wonder what effect such would have on the stock market(s)- ie., everyone "the recovery's here", and throwing money like mad at market.. Any thoughts appreciated there. As you may know, Swonk has been overly bullish for the past year and half, even predicting that the Fed would raise rates at the end of this year (made that predicition in April). Finally, Jeremy Siegel of Wharton....one guy I do respect....didn't seem to think we were going to have a deep, long recession either...that was somewhat stunning to me..he mentioned something about how misallocated assets this go round are largely "not fixed", and are much more mobile, easier to diffuse back into economy (I guess he is referring to dotcomers)..and that the bubble was largely a financial one, and confined to tech (how he can ignore the ramifications for rest of economy and derivatives, I'll never know, but he seemed to) I shut up now..