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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (11879)	12/15/2001 8:13:41 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi David, <<I could argue that your party was a sampling error too>> No need to argue. I know my sample is also misleading. I just got back from dinner in the part where regular folks hang out, Causeway Bay, and people were crowded from wall to wall, shopping, eating, spending. I found it difficult to walk because my normal pace is much faster than the mellow shoppers' amble. Japanese restaurants (more expensive) are shutting down, and Italian restaurants (less expensive) are opening up; and as I noted earlier, our Disney Land project is on schedule, and are looking forward to the magnetic levitation rail project. Guess what? I put all of these facts on the doom/gloom side of the ledger. In HK, flights are expensive because lots of folks waited the last moment to book, uncertain on whether to take the trip or not, and the number of flights have been cut back, causing a crunch. Beyond the holiday season, Cathay Pacific is offering USD 1500 good for one year ticket for two long haul and one regional short haul fare, and so if you want inexpensive flight, perhaps fly to HK first, then onward to US/Europe. There appears to be a divergent outlook on matters from my parties last week and my street level view tonight. How do I explain the divergence. I do not. I simply say one or the other group is wrong, do not know what is happening, or the other group do not care, or both. For example, yesterday my staff took home the largest bonus package ever in 11 years of their employment with my partnership, and I would guess they and their families are somewhere in the crowd of Causeway Bay, partying. Relieved. I suggest, by looking at the chart you pointed me to ... quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=c&t=5y&l=on&z=b&q=l ... folks are relieved that we have returned from the edge of abyss that was September, and giving themselves a treat for being (a) lucky, and/or (b) brilliant. A guess. Going forward, the folks who manage to keep their jobs/income stream and who kept their borrowing capacity intact will continue to party and be in good cheer, even as gloom and doom continue to propagate to tsunami proportions. Just a guess. You see, as it is apparent:0) it will be difficult to convince me that all is well, buy equities, and that I can beat the hand of market, for now, for a while longer, until people wake up from the equity cult. news.ft.com Chugs, Jay