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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2257)	12/17/2001 8:20:21 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

Now that I'm caught with my pants down it would be nice to have the historical prices for the last few years to see what happened when gas was low last time for a prolonged period. ---------- Previously I told someone how they may go about this. If their trust was not around during the last or all other severe downturns in the many commodity pricing cycles (ups and downs) of the last two decades. It may have even been you. Of course you may be one who thinks I do not offer anything of value to these dicussions. So take it/this for what it is worth. There are two trusts that have been around for a long time ERF and PGF. Now there long term trading data is readily available from providers of such, which may include your discount broker, it is a few dollars for several years worth of daily - highs lows and closes with volume. Ideally you would use the past data from these to look at these in particular. For others such as yours another method maybe available. Using the trading numbers (high low close) now of yours , mathematically compare it to PGF or ERF, by way of ratio. Using that ratio you figure out / take the long term data for PGF and convert it to your trusts then hypothetical value. You now have the long term trading numbers for your trust. Find when the last severe downturn occurred or any of the many others and then just look at the results. This analysis may seem complicated but with the readily available data and the power of todays computer spreadsheets it can be done in no time... Of course this would just give you a general idea but it may help. BUT THEN WHAT DO I KNOW. WHAT I KNOW IS ONLY DOCUMENTED HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -------------------

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2257)	12/17/2001 9:12:06 PM
From: sportsman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11633

Kastel & George, I'm going to sell in the morning unless it is a total disaster. I need to offset the distributions with the loss on the stock price. I might consider adding more AVN. I like the fact they are heavily hedged through all of next year, but I might wait another month to see their distribution rate which should hold pretty steady during 2002. I checked Henry Hub it appears to be around 2.30, that is US. <g> I don't know if you have this link for US storage but this is very important info: highlandenergy.com Using the history on this chart, it appears even with extremely cold weather, storage levels this Spring will be very high. I think the recovery in NG will come sometime very late 2002. Living in the middle of the patch, I have witnessed more than one of these cycles. Sportsman