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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (17422)	12/18/2001 2:10:21 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

As for Cingular, the stark reality is that they have made their decision, and as a result there is one less major prospect for CDMA and one more major carrier in the America's GSM camp. The stark reality is that major growth is not in penetrated markets, as can be seen in Europe, Korea, and the US. The major growth is in low teledensity markets. The failure or success of carriers using the various technologies is the key to watch, and the place to watch it is in the U.S. where there is major competition in technologies. If CDMA carriers can out perform their GSM counterparts, that bodes well for potential CDMA carriers in the less penetrated markets. The interest in DO vs. DV depends on the demand for data and the hesitation for DO is more of a hesitation for spending money on High speed data without proven demand. The more popular DO is, the more pressure will exist to launch WCDMA, DV or whatever. Caxton P.S. You're ugly and your mother dresses you funny.

To: Eric L who wrote (17422)	12/18/2001 3:01:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Eric, don't just listen to Nokia side of the story. common sense would tell you that while Nokia and GSM enjoys the economies of scale right now, that has nothing to do with totally different products down the road. In fact, those 500 wcdma handsets that docomo is using probably cost more than all the 1x handsets in Korea combined. As for contents, do you know there are over 150 brew apps in Korea right now? How many are there for GPRS? Have you given it any thought as to where Sprint may be today if CDMA does not work? They had invested their entire company future in cdma. Now it is a similar situation for AWE and Cingular. They invested their future in a dead end, knowing today that the best they can hope for is an inferior product while being a few years late to market. Eric, that is the type of bonehead management which brings down US icons such as Xerox, Polaroid and soon ATT. Ramsey

To: Eric L who wrote (17422)	12/18/2001 3:52:40 PM
From: EJhonsa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

As a Qualcomm shareholder it is extremely difficult for me to get all warm and gooey about 1xEV-DO ... and as a Verizon user I'll be darned if I can figure out right now what I'd do with it if it were available to me today. ADSL fits my home and office needs and 1xRTT in a smartphone (used as a modem for my laptop) will satisfy my mobile and portable computing needs ... which I guess makes me a neo-Luddite. <g> One word: costs. The applications might not be ready yet (though I suppose that once VOD services are out, the frame rate on an MPEG-4 stream will be a lot better with 1xEV), but we're already seeing a backlash forming against the billing structures being offered for packet data services. As I've commented previously, one of the overlooked aspects related to the success of i-Mode is Japan's extremely high cost of living, perhaps the highest in the world. As you know, ARPUs for Japanese service providers are generally in the $80 range, in spite of the relatively limited degree to which corporations cover mobile accounts. At $5-6/MB/month, it's possible that only high-end corporate clients will be able to make heavy use of GPRS for something beyond basic WAP pages. Costs will most likely come down a bit over time once the early adopters are nabbed, and perhaps the pricing for 1x, EDGE, and W-CDMA will (hopefully) be 50-80% lower, but even at $2-3/MB/month, significant usage of the right type of J2ME/BREW applications and/or the use of WAP 2.0 in conjunction with a large-screen smartphone could further complicate matters. So, provided that interest in data services is cultivated properly, the pricing issue for mobile applications might loom large all the way through the deployment of 1xEV-DV/WCDMA-HSDPA, with 1xRTT/EDGE/1xEV-DO/WCDMA-R4 acting as demand catalysts in the interim. It's going to take a couple more technological leaps in semiconductor/component design and manufacturing before the issue of the present inefficiency of mobile communications systems for high-bandwidth data transport is entirely resolved. Eric