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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57965)	12/20/2001 5:51:59 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, if you draw a trend line starting at 90 and going through 38.50 on your chart you'll see that the stock price is - again - below that line, i.e. the down trend is intact. [the 'annotate' function allows drawing lines] G.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57965)	12/20/2001 7:41:29 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I'm considering a long-TXN/short-JNPR combo, to hedge market risk. I don't see how this straddle hedges market risk, except rather indirectly and to the extent that JNPR has a higher beta (which hurts you on the upside). Wouldn't a long JNPR short SPX be the better hedge of "market" risk, assuming the S&P 500 was the market you were concerned about? gives me confidence [that in TXN] each [rally] got closer to 200D moving average I notice that this is true for JNPR as well stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnyay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60], yet you are considering using it as hedge meat. Wouldn't a stock that was a better proxy for the market and preferably one that was not as strong as the one on the favored leg of the straddle be a better choice? I'm fairly sure TXN's business will revive a lot earlier than JNPR's will. True. Wireless is expected to revive sooner than networking. However keep in mind that JNPR fell from 255 to 8 while TXN only fell from 100 to 20 so JNPR recovery might well be more dramatic, assuming it occurs at all. Caution might be warranted.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57965)	12/20/2001 7:59:22 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob: Re: "I figure the September panic selling set a bottom for TXN, and for the chips/semiequips in general." Well TXN is trading lower now then after the planes first hit and the market reopened on the 17th. Re: "I don't know why TXN is falling." Well someone sure does and they want out fast.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57965)	12/20/2001 11:03:45 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Thanks Jacob for posting your trading logic. I owned TXN but sold out of it earlier at higher prices because I thought it was bit pricey. I may grab some around 21 if it gets there. I agree, it is a mystery as to why it is going down so much right now. One question: Do you give much weight to analyst estimates? Based on that TXN does not look so good (CY 2002 earnings). I just bought some TQNT yesterday, which also operates in the wireless chip space. I am not sure if the recent analyst comment that "a shift away from use of GaAs components in optical networking" is a valid concern here. I have owned TQNT a few times, been trading it mostly. John