Hi Maurice, <<It's amazing and very much a reminder to me that predicting the future is extremely difficult, especially when people are involved>>
I agree, and therefore we must hedge, else we might suffer from <<a gap in thinking and essential paranoia, which likely results in instant DNA recycling>>
<<The Aztecs are in thrall to objective reality and cower before it with their gold totems which people have always valued. Their gold cannot create anything new>>
They then, like you now, forgot to hedge.
<<Jump Jay, jump!>>
No need to worry about me, Maurice, because I can stand the pain of being absolutely wrong, and still come out of the time portal in a close semblance to OK.
<<incoherent rant. It made sense to me at the time>>
Do not worry. This thread is possibly the most tolerant on SI, and I can take a joke better than many.
Reunifying our threads of discussion, I respond to your …
Message 16825501
<<each of us is 100% allocated all the time. One wrong step and the bacteria or crematorium are waiting to recycle our misbegotten carbon and DNA back into the ecosphere to have another go at a successful entity>>
Not true. USD value can go to zero tomorrow and I will OK. Euro can go to naught, and I will be all right. Gold can cause cancer, and I will be fine. Bonds can be outlawed, and my life style will remain the same. OK, all right, fine, remain the same, but not fantastic. You know what I mean, just as I know what you mean by <<100% allocated all the time>>.
<<Careers are also 100% allocation>>
Again, not true. I do not have a career. I have done corporate CFO, renovated resort, speculated in commercial buildings, negotiated acquisitions, managed divestment, and I hope to publish a book and make a movie one day.
Careers cause cancer.
<<we had better give as much attention to our 100% investment allocations as he does to golf>>
Not possible. Tiger does it for fun, fulltime. We do it for real, part time.
<<Now that I think about it, I think it's time to spread out. In fact, I have and am looking to move more. As you so rightly pointed out, the advantage I now have in QUALCOMM has been eroded as thousands of people now scrutinize every move, value every facet and predict every outcome. What advantage do I now have over them? Very little>>
Good idea. Your DNA may have a chance after all.
<<However the prosaic, tangible world of Au and land and buildings leaves me cold ... 19th century>>
If all the ‘backward’ folks allocate 3-5% of their NAV to the true global time constant eternal standard of value, the resulting liquidity may push the funds to allocate 3-5% of their NAV to the Au equities, and …
Oh, do not worry about it. Just because gold consumption has been going up every year and new supply has been decreasing every year, for the last however many years, does not mean the trend will continue. Just because folks in Argentina will soon experience the anguish of a third circulating fiat currency within days, and folks the world over have had to turn to heir gold as a last resort financial reset button with rising frequency and growing amplitude, does not mean my faith will be rewarded.
<<The problem you identified in that quote, 'hallucination', is the big issue>>
I am counting on hallucination to make my crossing the time barrier a pleasant one. Sense the flow, feel the force, impute the power, guess at the potential.
I think 2002 may easily prove to be damaging to both the NAV and the DNA, and so I remain alert to the opportunities, but will hedge out total disasters.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, Jay |
