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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (16145)	12/26/2001 7:08:42 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Welcome to our modest abode. I fail to understand your argument. What exactly happen when a country like Spain, that depends more on tourism, and has more exposure to South America than other Euro countries gets into a bind which is unique to it, and not related to the general economic activities of its Euro partners. How much "social support" (instead of firing as you stated?) can be allowed within the framework of a limited ability to "manipulate" its monetary base? Of course economic activity will be one of the determinant, but other factors such as soaking of Euro by the underground economy (bigger, percentage wise, in Europe, so I am told, than in the US), differential economic growth (and contraction) of the various members will also have an impact. The latter, will eventually cause to either a total political Union in Europe (and thus common fiscal and monetary policies) or the abandonment of the Euro as a unifying currency. Since i don't think that Europe will be ready for "political Union" in the next 15 years, i fear the other alternative will rule. I thought, by the way that Greenspan was a supporter of the Euro, after all, it is a critical element in getting currencies delinked from gold.