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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (66496)	12/28/2001 4:52:36 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Elmer Re...It's based on AMD's own statement that they were capacity constrained. If that statement was untrue then no analysis can be made. I hope you can calm down and realize that estimate was made in good faith based on AMD's own statements.<<<<< Sure, Amd was capacity constrained, just as Intel was. But there is a difference between capacity constrained and production constrained. The difference being that AMD and Intel had planned for a certain capacity . When demand exceeded capacity, both were unable to increase production immediately, (because it takes three months to get extra wafers produced.) resulting in a short term shortage, which should be taken care of shortly. Production constrained means when the manufacturer is producing at full output, and I don't believe either is. Intel however, initiated it by forcing the P3 to P4 changeover, which resulted in a big surge in P4 orders, plus there was a surge in electronics after Sept 11, computers were a part of the upsurge, causing a bigger demand than Intel was ready for. Which created a bigger demand for the XP than AMD was ready for. Both should be up to speed shortly. It's this simple, If AMD was intentionally restricting their Athlon production then my analysis doesn't apply. Both, your and Dan3 estimates were based upon full production capacity; something which would be unlikely at this time. While I don't follow Intel, I do know Jerry announced at the 3q-01 CC, that AMD didn't need the production capacity of fab 25, and AMD was going to shift production of the Durons to Dresden. That hardly sounds like AMD is production constrained. I also know Intel shut down some fabs and laid off 9000 through layoffs or attrition. AMD and Intel were capacity constrained because the production schedules for both were light, and not properly balanced. Given time, both will shift production to meet a particular demand. You really don't have a clue do you? That 1 million/week number first came from a process engineer from F12, not me. I just confirmed it. I fully understood what you were saying then. But subsequent sales figures and shortages have proven that to be a lie, as there were supposed to be 4 fabs producing coppermines. This one fab alone could, according to you, produced 13 million p3 / q. the total sales of P3 for the quarter. Yet, there was a big shortage. Why??? That is why no one believed it then, and now.