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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12259)	12/30/2001 12:47:48 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<...a cut of the wife’s allowance seems only prudent.> Jay, I would take a long term view of "prudence" with respect to that. If you are attending profligate parties, it might seem incongruous to some XX chromosome people in a legal relationship with you if their cash flow forecasts are reduced after attending such a function. They won't appreciate the financial intricacies which mean a correlation of truffles and lobster in your stomach with a cut up gold card makes perfect sense. Especially since the XY crew retired out of hearing to the drawing room for port, Cuban cigars and secret financial analysis. Meanwhile, my latest theory on why the P:E ratio of 25 for the S&P is fair enough: Message 16842983 Incidentally, what's the current Global Crossing debt price please? I don't know where to click to get it. I am tempted to do some end of 2001 shopping. <I was the sole and lonely loony gold cockroach at the party > Hmm, if all are saying the US$ is the Tora Bora safe cave of the financial world, it makes me a little doubtful that it's so good as that. Did they threaten to have an Aztec human sacrifice on an altar to propitiate the $$ gods? Mqurice Dow 16,000 Feb 2002

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12259)	12/30/2001 1:11:25 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Jay... lol... it may be that educational institutions are the same all over. On the topic of finding good jobs, my resume includes experience in positions of minimal productivity and maximum remuneration. Judging by your posts, perhaps your difficulty is that you appear to be over-qualified :o) Hmmm... a party of concern. Speaks volumes. Perhaps your friends are not so much contra-leading-lagging indicators as they are demographic markers. For they sound amazingly like my friends. Although we are of a different class of glitz around here. If your friends are looking for places to park capital, I have identified a very novel approach. While I am preparing my secret web site for the convenience of online direct debit payment, you can simply have them send me a check <g> >>much deeper into what we are already << My chips are on this square. But what is stirring the blood in my veins at the moment is the very paralysis of indecision that you are describing. If your leading-lagging-contra demographic marker friends are indeed indicative of anything, then we are at or near a point of maximum contraction in available capital. Which reeks of opportunity. Not the simian-throws-darts-and-gets-rich-quick kind of opportunity. More like the careful sighting of shadows at range 3000 yards through a gyroscopically stabilized super-sniper scope kind of opportunity. Or one can merely lie in wait as the targets get closer and use a less expensive scope at closer range. I've tossed out the "V" as a recovery hypothesis. More probably it will be a www. recovery (dot gov). And in this long and grueling ordeal, we will need a different strategy of nimble allocation and opportunistic foraging. Good hunting Jay. I am actively staking out new territory and will likely put a hummer back onto the roads in the next few months. If it doesn't come back, well... we can add this to your Global Crossing as food for jesting this time next year. Your FWIW seems interesting. A point of question is "in which currency would you short the Gold?" John.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12259)	12/30/2001 3:17:12 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

CyberRedChips (Mainland Chinese cyber companies – a truly deadly combination), This was a genuine LOL Oh, FWIW, one idea generated in passing by a bond trader but seemingly dismissed by all except Jay is ‘short gold, and long un-hedged dividend paying gold shares’, possibly afterburner boosted by a short Yen position. Why would that be a good idea? hmmm at the last party I went to I mainly heard about the oppression of minorities in Bangladesh. David

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12259)	12/30/2001 5:23:06 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, being equally clueless, I wonder if I could get an invite to that dinner next year? In fact, Jockey Club or Kowloon club would be OK also. Actually, I would settle for a goose at Yun Kee. Anyway, I have been trying to be totally objective and check out the signals, the ones that are supported by some data: Consumer sentiments. No signs of capitulation there, isn't that a bearish indicator? New home sales. New home sales supposedly report ORDERS, not closings. The numbers had been relatively strong month after month, this is very bullish. Home resales. Numbers are strong, bullish. Refinances. This not only put money into consumers pockets, together with home prices, they probably created a much more substantial wealth effect than the dotcom driven wealth effect Greenspan mumbled about a couple of years ago. Now that is finally slowing down, is the market going to go down with it? Japan. Japan is going to "crash", but is that good or bad? Would somebody who knows FOR SURE please let me know. So is that enough cluelessness for one of those cubans? Ramsey PS Maurice, I never said nothing about rosey, wallet may be, but not rosey.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12259)	12/31/2001 3:22:51 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Nowhere to put money - >>>A curious consensus concerning 2002 emerged from the male group after the traditional post appetizer splitting of the husbands and the wives: no idea where to put money to work (including the billion plus dollars of corporate money); good time to practice golf; catch up on sleep.<<< Ran into the same thing at the Grant's conference in November and on many discussion boards. Almost all the opportunies I see are specific companies or deals, NOT Sectors of "Plays" Looks like we are head ed for a stock picker's paradise, where careful balance sheet , industry analysis, and management evaluation are what make money. Problem is - analyzing companies & industries and making phone calls to customers is a lot of hard work !

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12259)	12/31/2001 4:43:00 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

HNY, Jay. This is the best thing to do when cluelessnes sets in: The ex-market maker has all his millions in USD fixed deposits, and is cutting back on spending in line with reduced interest income. Smart, smart, smart guy. Me? I'm a self-professed LTB&H (Long Time Bloodied & Harassed) so will continue to do what I 'm comfortable doing though it seems almost masochistic now. May go to some cash at beginning of year. Why? The American consumer is not leading US out of the recession. The retailers (except for Wal-Mart) did not do well this Christmas. Consumer is cheap and wary, not in bubble mood. Quite the contrary, he has watched his wealth implode, his portfolio get bloodied, job is in jeopardy, and there is a possibility of another catastrophic terror event hanging like the sword of Damocles over the US economy. Optimism drives the stock markets--no reason for optimism. Proof? Uncle Al has opened spigots of liquidity and it is not working yet. Who is going to lead the US out of the recession if it's not the American consumer? The only one who can do it is business through capital expenditures. Is it happening? Nope, it's not. It's still in shock, and needs to understand that the basis of future success lies in spending on technology and productivity now so as to get a leg up later on competition. But that is not how it's done in US so don't expect a rush of capex to lift the economy. Japan? Gimme a break. So smart, so productive, such a homogenous, well-ordered society that for whatever reason is totally clueless. Nippon needs to take the bitter pills, swallow the cod-liver oil (like US did with S & L mess) and get on with it. Why are all the pundits optimistic? They're paid to be. No need to be clueless. Get into US gov't bonds and wait for the bargains.