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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (12279)12/30/2001 7:56:55 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
On the subject of a crystal ball research: nine Big-league
institutions in Germany - for instance IFO, the "5 elders"
etc among them -. I#M giving just the mean and the st.
deviation of predictions:

Growth 0.8 0.3
consumer prices 1.4 0.1
private consumption 1.1 0.3
investments -0.6 1.2
Cap. Eq. -0.3 2.3
real estate -1.8 1.2
Exports 2.1 0.9
Imports 2.6 1.0
bto salaries 2.2 0.9
cap. Income 0.2 1.8
unemployed [M] 4.0 0.05

All numbers except unemployment in percents.

a) note zero in front of 0.8% growth prediction. Still,
it's predicted positive.

b) unemployment figures breaking into 4 Million range in
the election year

c) alarmingly low (for Germany) exports. Germany turning into a net importer (!?)

d) big bars on some important numbers (salaries, exports...)

This is part one of a series of two.

dj



To: Earlie who wrote (12279)12/30/2001 12:13:13 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Earlie:

I agree with Levy's "contained depression" thesis as long as the dollar remains strong. But when (not if) the buck goes down for the count, all kinds of scenarios become possible.


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