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Technology Stocks : 4G - Wireless Beyond Third Generation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: axial who wrote (93)	12/31/2001 11:36:08 AM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1002

Hi Jim, Good questions and points, all. I wish I had concrete answers; my view is that the overriding factor these last two years in funding network builds has been capital scarcity. Companies are now forced to find alternate approaches to finance buildouts; this means new business models, experiments to find what works and a slower arrival of broadband. The one positive for broadband wireless is that the other access models are not making great inroads though cable seems to be winning the spot as the core broadband provider. I believe those cable operators will eventually embrace wireless broadband to cover all the areas outside their reach, but when it no longer represents a threat to their core business. This assumes of course that some other group of companies doesn't take advantage of rising DSL and cable access charges first. As for .11b, with the advent of combined .11a/.11b access points, the technological limitations of .11b (3 channels only) and the rising of the .11g star (assuming it isn't buried by .11a in the interim), it seems unlikely that .11b will "lock up" this market. Viewing all of the WLAN bandwidth as one aggregate available to access points is far more constructive and highlights the great opportunity in that market. You still have to get to and from all of these new hot spots - I don't think much fiber is getting laid these days... When the 3g proponents finally concede defeat at the feet of true BWA, then the landscape will be ready for OFDM WAN. No doubt the best short term opps. in BWA are in developing countries. 2.5G is more than adequate for voice and limited data apps. Leave broadband data to those able to actually deliver it. UWB is the real wildcard in the home network arena though its confinement to that segment means it is limited; it is a really cool technology though and it will undoubtedly find a niche in various specialized applications. All IMHO. Rob

To: axial who wrote (93)	12/31/2001 11:56:05 PM
From: Peter Ecclesine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1002

Hi Jim, >>1 - High price points on ASICs and CPE: insurmountable for consumer usage. Relates to economies of scale, and unfrozen design.<< Or inadequate and unknowing architecture. "i was so much older then, i'm younger than that now" CPE price is relatively insensitive to ASIC price, very sensitive to volume >>2 - Plug 'n' play functionality only now arriving: inability to make hardware/software combination that masks complexity.<< Like user-installed DSL, which took a few years. >> 3 - Infrastructure costs and barriers high: especially, public resistance to new towers/repeaters.<< No new towers >>4 - As predicted a year ago, 802.11b is proving to be a barrier to advanced forms of modulation. Cost wins. << 802.11b is proving little other than it was good enough for use in your home, and your office The cost of access has nothing to do with 802.11b, HomePlug, HomeRF, etc., and .11b is not a barrier to anything better, anymore than IS-136 is a barrier to anything. petere