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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (153396)	12/31/2001 4:36:38 PM
From: Noel	Respond to of 186894

Bambs, RE: INTC's actual earnings I expect a report of near 2 cents or less for actual earnings. I am just curious as to how you derive these figures. From what source is Intel deriving the rest of its profits?

To: bambs who wrote (153396)	12/31/2001 10:21:50 PM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

"INTC's actual earnings may have bottomed" What is your definition of "acutal"?

To: bambs who wrote (153396)	1/1/2002 4:51:44 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Respond to of 186894

Bambs, Re: "I think that the p/e should be around 20 for intc. normal earnings will likely come in around 30-40 cents after the rinse of this year and next year. so call it a $6-8 dollar stock. $10 if you are really optimistic." Rediculous. AMD is expected to end this next year down 14 cents. What should AMD's stock price be so that P/E ratios line up? There is obviously more to pricing a stock than just looking at future P/E. How about looking at other tech stocks expected to make marginal profits, like SUNW? Should they be priced at $4.60, a third of their current value, to align with a forward P/E of 20? Look at stocks like CSCO. It has a price/book ratio similar to INTC, and it's expected to make lower earnings over a longer period of time. DELL has a much higher price/book than INTC, and it isn't expected to make much more in profits over the next year, either. As expected, INTC falls nicely between these two extremes. CSCO, DELL, and INTC are all blessed by extra optimism, and this is usually warranted, and rewarded. Yet, you are predicting over an 80% drop from INTC's current stock price, and your only reason is so that it can line up with a ratio that can fluctuate wildly from quarter to quarter. For a company like Intel, P/E can shoot up to 70 one year, and shrink down to 20 the next. Controlling costs and stabilizing ASPs goes a long way. What you are missing is that the market for Intel's products is still strong, they still have a solid roadmap that they are executing well to, they are still expanding manufacturing and cutting costs, and they are still growing other profitable businesses. The question you ought to answer is why should an investor rate such a high tech company with strong product lines, strong future commitments, the world's best semiconductor manufacturing, and one of the best track records of any company out there, at a measly 20 P/E at a time of economic crisis that could easily bounce back several quarters down the line? You are surely foolish if you are ignoring this aspect. I suspect that a few uneasy facts have gone to your head, and you are willing to blow everything out of proportion in order to satisfy your preconceived notions. That seems to be a common tactic among the Intel bears here. They will develop a conclusion, and then distort the facts until they point directly to the as yet undeveloped thesis. You're obviously a very smart person. But before you begin predicting an INTC stock price of $6, why don't you consider using other examples as a baseline. With nothing to compare it to, your conclusion seems arbitrary and out of place - and foolish in a way. I hesitate to laugh out loud, since you obviously have many astute observations; if you could focus on realistic examples, it would help to develop your point. Otherwise, you are expecting us to believe that a darling of both the Nasdaq and Dow would suddenly fall to mediocre status overnight, and that simply doesn't happen. Period. wbmw