Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2002 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (70)	1/1/2002 2:14:10 PM
From: Night Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 91

It seems to me that a boffo tax-loss season requires some combination of 3 factors. 1. Gains in some stocks elsewhere to motivate the tax selling in the first place. 2. Total despondency in a sector if not the general market, a feeling that the shares might never come back. 3. Moderate success of the strategy in the recent past otherwise too much money will be there buying to cancel out the selling. A year ago we got the first one and the other two to an extent while this year we got none of them (except perhaps 2 in Telecom).You could say that this year December was in September. FWIW here are my end of year buys, which may or may not have been depressed by tax selling: INSM – Biotech I’ve had my beady eye on all year since a bout of insider buying. Not THE low but low enough. VSGY – Another biotech selling below cash. ALLP - Pharmaceutical company - is there a pattern here? - that from scanning the message boards I just feel has reached a trough in sentiment. IAIS – Used airliner leasing. I’ll be writing a fuller review of this one on the Value thread shortly. Talking of which, while you’re waiting for next December, you may want to check it out - I know I've learned a lot from it: Subject 10036

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (70)	1/1/2002 11:54:18 PM
From: Q.	Respond to of 91

Year-end value of my port was $25,260. I'm noting this so that we can compare performance of our portfolios beginning at the same start date, even though we bought a couple of days earlier. BTW, two of my stocks benefitted from tape-painting on 12/31: MLRC and VLCT. The stocks jumped up quite a lot in the last few minutes of trading. Those gains are likely to dissipate within a week.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (70)	2/3/2002 2:31:49 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 91

Here are the results for the three portfolios as at Friday. vs. Purchase (Dec-28) vs. Dec-31 $ 2 to $9 stocks: +0,61% -7,09% 40c to $2 stocks: +36,97% +9,95% OTCBBjunk to 40c: +2,88% -19,72% Overall: +15,65% -2,66% (with a 40:40:20 weighting, as in the portfolios) Russel 2000: -2,70% -1,70% Portfolios are in: siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com Generally spoken, there was not much of a January effect overall, although some of the stock provided for cheap entries and nice exits. So, much like N posted, it is crucial to take gains when they are there. Similar to the performance in 2001 I saw the peak values for the 3 portfolios (all three showing a handsome gain) by mid-month. I stick with my idea to buy small stocks, before I buy bigger stocks the next time. Not surprisingly, the 40c to $2 portfolio shows the best gain, and measured from the yearend, a gain at all as opposed to all others. This can be attributed to the bottom feeding, you find 3 stocks in the portfolio which are still up 50% and more (FSTW, LNTE and SGNT). In real life however I achieved a gain with the OTCBB portfolio mostly because of selling the temporary recovery of LCP which showed a 400% gain for about a week after the seller was cleared out. None of the 24 stocks got halted or filed for BK, take that as a matter of luck, when you see crappy companies thrown off the exchange for cooking the books or filing for Ch.11 on a daily basis (see current nasdaq trading halts list). But some stocks (SYBB, NXCD, ATPG) had severe losses, something I did not experience in the last years of January buying. One rotten egg in each of the 3 portfolios barred a better overall performance. Another one, ANTV fell to 1.20 before recovering. It is likely that it has seen its low in January, rather than December. As a result similar to N, I will probably avoid the crappiest of all companies (ie those ones trading below 40c or on the OTCBB) simply because those ones look totally forgotten and there is no january buying at all, except very few cases with stock manipulation. But cheap nasdaq stock (and such stock without acute ch.11 rumours, like MFNX, MCLD and having hypertrophic volumes with downward pressure, like NXCD) appear to be prone to a positive effect at all the times.