January Effect 2002 | Stock Discussion Forums

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Strategies & Market Trends
January Effect 2002

An SI Board Since December 2001

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
91	36	0

Emcee: Q.	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Compact

Low-priced stocks have their best performance, by far, during the first 10 weeks of the year.
Those that move up most strongly have the following typical profile:
* small market cap
* low stock price
* low RS for last 12 months
* low RS in last few weeks of year, due to tax loss selling
* owned primarily by individuals

The purpose of this thread is to identify stocks that meet these criteria.
Similar threads I started the last three years were quite successful in the posting activity, and they reported good results from stock picking, as well:

January Effect 2001:
Subject 50376
My return, before trading costs, was +29.7% vs. +3.6% for the Russell 2000, assuming all stocks were bought on the last day of trading. Here's my final report:
Message 15290866
In retrospect, the optimal time to buy in December 2000 was about halfway between Christmas and New Years Day. By buying one day before the last trading day of the year, my portfolio would have returned +36.3% on paper, as compared to +29.7% for buying on the last day.

Midland, another poster on that thread, posted his picks and reported a return of +111%, net of 1 cent/share commissions, or +94% if all buys were done on the last day of trading in the year:
Message 15296872.
He attributed his superior results to several factors in his stock-picking method:
siliconinvestor.com

The January Effect in 2001 was 5X bigger than typical, according to a news story I read recently; the analyst quoted in that story attributed this unusual outcome to the bursting of the tech-stock bubble early in 2000.

January Effect 2000:
Subject 32350
My return, net of trading costs, was +17% vs. +10.6% for the Russell 2000. Here's my final report:
Message 12781974

January Effect 1999:
Subject 24490
My return, net of trading costs, was +11%, vs. nil for the Russell 2000. Here's my final report:
Message 7737621

I will follow this mechanical timing formula:
* Buy halfway between Christmas and New Years.
* Sell everything by the first Friday in February, or earlier if I feel I have a ridiculously large paper gain.
This timing is based on historical average charts for low-priced stocks and on my experience in recent years.

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
91	Announcing the January Effect 2003 Thread: Subject 53512 I look forward to see	Q.	-	12/10/2002
90	hello, N. As we quickly approach 2003, how about opening a thread and repeat th	RockyBalboa	-	12/8/2002
89	According to Salomon Smith Barney the following are the likely additions and del	stevenallen	-	10/21/2002
88	One less place for scum like Goleo to sell crap: "Germany Shuts Down High-T	Sir Auric Goldfinger	-	9/26/2002
87	Nope! Won't be buying any LCAV this time of year. I learned that the hard	Cisco	-	6/23/2002
86	Cisco, if you remembered that pick, you must have a good memory! I have to give	Paul Senior	-	6/21/2002
85	Paul, Did you at least double your money in Lcav? I just looked at it for the	Cisco	-	6/19/2002
84	I think many were surprised the sellout began in late January vs. mid February.	Jack Hartmann	-	2/15/2002
83	Gold has been doing well attributable to the problem with the Yen. A freind of	Mad2	-	2/10/2002
82	Congratulations, Midland, for thrashing me two years in a row! I agree that usi	Q.	-	2/3/2002
81	Not much of a JE2002 as I had feared. Here is the tally on my 4 picks figured f	semi_infinite	-	2/3/2002
80	Here are the results for the three portfolios as at Friday. <pre>	RockyBalboa	-	2/3/2002
79	Final results for January Effect 2002 picks This was the first year that my pic	Q.	-	2/3/2002
78	sweet trade	~digs	-	1/10/2002
77	Just took 30% of KARE off the table - will let the rest ride.	semi_infinite	-	1/10/2002
76	No, sorry it's VGNX. I've flipped out of it already BTW for a small gain	Night Trader	-	1/10/2002
75	Martin, Is VSGY the correct symbol? I can't find it.	DanWebzster	-	1/9/2002
74	~, a few trading days have passed and I see the january effect quite mute... or	RockyBalboa	-	1/9/2002
73	Midland, it appears that you are whipping me again this year. All three of you	Q.	-	1/3/2002
72	Year-end value of my port was $25,260. I'm noting this so that we can compa	Q.	-	1/1/2002
71	It seems to me that a boffo tax-loss season requires some combination of 3 facto	Night Trader	-	1/1/2002
70	Yearend Values for the portfolios: $2 to $9 stocks¹: $8,684 $.40 to $2 st	RockyBalboa	-	1/1/2002
69	Some January effect stock candidates I haven't seen posted here: jmar inph	Brumar89	-	12/31/2001
68	I wasn't very convinced that we'll get a strong JE given the strong rebo	semi_infinite	-	12/31/2001
67	My picks closed the year at a gain of +9.8% as compared to when I bought them ye	Q.	-	12/31/2001

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):