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To: yard_man who wrote (26444)1/2/2002 10:37:59 AM
From: The Freep  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 209892
 
This is not TA, and I imagine y'all recall all this, too, but. . . last year on Jan 2, we had a healthy selloff (admittedly in a downtrend), then a huge rally the following day (then we gave it all back). The reason I kept reading for the Jan 2 selloff was simply that lots of folks sell on the first day of the year, particularly profitible positions, cuz then they have 16 months til they have to pay tax (this as opposed to selling at the end of the prior year). Supposedly, historically (I've lost the link, but it wasn't too stat packed anyway), after year-end rallies or strongly positive calendar years in particular, the first week or so of January can be "surprisingly" weak due to the above phenomenon.

Dunno if it will be this time. VIX spiking nicely (though I quickly point out it can go much higher). COMPX going towards that 1934 area that seems to pop up a bunch. We'll see.

the freep