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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (13544)	1/3/2002 1:54:51 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78565

<<<You sound pretty negative.>>> I am bearish on energy stocks right now, at least as far as oil and gas are concerned. I do follow the sector, and there just plain isn't anything I can see to justify current prices anytime in the next year. Demand is down, prices are down, exploration is down, production is down, capital spending is down, the only thing that isn't down is supply levels and unemployment. The stocks are very volatile right now, which makes for increased day trading activity, but day traders tend to burn out a stock fairly quickly. As you mentioned in a previous post, these stocks are cyclical. Trailing PEs are meaningless coming off a market top. There also tends to be a delayed reaction coming off a market top in revenue and earnings as companies will usually hedge prices when conditions are good. It normally takes a good 6-9 months for the full impact of lower commodity prices to hit revenue and earnings. The same applies to oil services as they tend to build large backlogs of business during a good run up in prices. IMO, the bottom of the cycle is still a long ways off. The only wild card in the deck is OPEC and their track record as oil's white knight is not exactly impressive. FWIW, my current positions in O&G are put options. So "pretty negative" is an accurate description.

To: isopatch who wrote (13544)	1/3/2002 7:29:54 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78565

Isopatch, although you're presenting yourself as making money in the markets, the fact is you've had some very poor calls this past year. Over on the Strictly Drilling II thread, you made a major call to go against the PPT following the WTC attack. The NASDAQ then went on to its best seven week performance in over 20 years, according to Financial Times. Anyone following your advice on that call lost out on a 50% move. No telling how much they lost investing the other way. I can provide the link if you wish. You've been calling for a major move in the gold market. The portfolio I put together of your picks on 12/3, the day after you posted your selections on same thread, is up 0.1% as of today. 1/10th of a point on what you called a major move. siliconinvestor.com And following your advice to your fellow threadsters, you sold out 2-3 weeks later after calling a major move. I can provide the link if you wish. And let's not forget your admission of having a disappointing year. Message 16560738 And now in your post to Bob Rudd, you speak of using fundamental screens to form a base of what you call unorthodox investing, yet on your thread you said fundamentals are best answered by others. Message 16842463 You are right about one thing, your investing is unorthodox. I can provide the links showing more losers than winners if you wish. I'm not looking for a debate here, I just thought showing some balance to your calls was warranted. dabum