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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kdavy who wrote (58370)	1/3/2002 2:50:46 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

kdavy, OT *** TXN Looks like there IS upside but I wouldn't expect much more than 33 ST [just eyeballing the chart]. I have had some CPQ April $12.50 for a few weeks, bought at 40 cents and it's at 95 cents now, so I'm torn between greed and prudence. Here's the TXN chart stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lf!Lk14] If you draw a line connecting the peaks, it's still in a downtrend. Gottfried

To: kdavy who wrote (58370)	1/3/2002 4:29:38 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Nas, TXN and AMAT: The Nas: Techs have led the rebound off the October 2001 lows, and I think they will continue to do so. The only short I'm holding is a housing stock. I think we get a January rally, a lot of scared sideline money comes off the sidelines. The consensus is becoming, "the bottom is in, time to jump back into kinky go-go overvalued Growth stocks." I had intended on raising more cash in January, but I think I'll wait till February. At the moment, I'm about 70% long, 20% cash, and 10% short. If we get into February, and CSCO is unable to make a decisive break above 20, and JNPR can't break above 28, I'll buy put LEAPs in them. But for now, I'm not going to step in front of the liquidity train. TXN daily chart: stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnymy[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60] TXN spent almost all of 2001 in a horizontal trading range. It bounced repeatedly in the 26-28 area (except during the late-September panic selling); rallies failed in the high 30s. We have not yet broken out of that pattern, but I'm guessing we break out of that range, to the upside, sometime in 2002. We have formed a solid base, and the next big move is up. I would only play TXN long, for a ST trade. And I like it for a LT hold, at any price from 31 on down. I'm holding a lot of TXN, at prices from 24 to 31 (ran out of margin comfort at the bottom last year). I will take some profits in the 38-40 area, and hold some LT. Buy more on any dip below 31. Basically, trade the range (long only) between 31 and 38. TXN has lagged other semis, not sure why. It'll catch up. AMAT: I have 10% of my portfolio in AMAT, average price 29, and I'm going to let it ride. No plans to sell or buy. I may buy NVLS puts next month, if the rally looks to be stalling. I, too, am going to hold LT with part of my portfolio (the lowest-cost positions in various techs I bought in September/October 2001), and trade with the rest. The market is seeing a bottom in semi fundamentals, and reacting by buying semi-equips, believing that an upturn in semi sales has to mean an upturn in semi-equip bookings in the near future. I'm a bit concerned about that correlation; I think we may see a much-longer-than-usual lag, before semi-equip bookings turn up. Still a lot of unused fab capacity out there; consumer and business buying, after inventories get restocked, may rebound, but only weakly. Therefore, it may take till late 2002 or even 2003 before excess semi capacity gets used, and only then will we start to see significant capacity buys. A question of "when", not "if". Do you mean AMAT is 60% of your total portfolio, or just the LT portion? I'd diversify, and hedge, if I were you; that's too high a %, even for the highest-quality stock. Remember, a lot of very smart people thought ENE was in the catagory of "highest-quality stock". JS@shithappens.com