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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35780)	1/4/2002 12:46:32 PM
From: Robert G. Harrell	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 67629

Hi Harry, I'm a former disbeliever in T/A who over the years has gradually been "converted". I've never formally studied it. Just picked up bits and pieces through osmosis. I'm now working my way through Edwards and Magee's Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. I've come across what looks to me like a reverse head and shoulders on a stock I've followed for several years, THQI. I made a big mistake and got out of it in the 20's to support a position in another stock which turned out to be a total disaster. I thought I had found a good entry point as it broke out of what looked like a good base but it soon reversed and I stopped out as it fell back into the base. Edwards and Magee discuss reverse head and shoulders as a reversal pattern of a decline. My question to you or anyone who really knows T/A is does a reverse head and shoulders have a positive implication if it is on top of a long up trend? Thanks in advance for any help you can give me. Bob

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35780)	1/4/2002 3:26:35 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67629

04 Jan 2002 11:51 ET **** Footstar (FTS) 28.41 -2.88: Footstar, a leading footwear retailer, issued a Q4 earnings warning before the start of trading, citing unseasonably warm weather and the uncertain economic environment. Due to that nettlesome combination, earnings are now expected to be approximately $0.60 per diluted share, which is well below the current First Call consensus estimate of $0.84. Following the warning, FTS made a point of mentioning that it still expects its debt and overall inventories to be in line with previous expectations. On Dec. 13, FTS said it expected to end 2001 with inventories of approximately $400 mln and debt of $140-150 mln. That hasn't helped matters, though, as investors are fixated on the bottom-line miss and the lackluster top-line results for the month of December. For the five-week period ended Dec. 29, total sales were up 3.5% to $292.1 mln, but comparable store sales were down 5.7%. Comparable store sales for the company's athletic segment-- comprised of Footaction and Just For Feet-- slipped 1.1% while Meldisco's comparable store sales decreased 9.1%. In the athletic segment, strong footwear sales were offset by lower sales of apparel and accessories. At Meldisco, which operates licensed footwear departments in discount chains, decreased sales of winter-related product and reduced circular advertising were to blame. Sales rebounded in the last week of the month, though, and FTS said it is optimistic boot sales will increase in Jan. and Feb. Given all of the concerns surrounding Kmart (KM) right now, including speculation regarding the possibility of a bankruptcy filing, it is certainly worth noting that Meldisco's net sales from Kmart's operations accounted for approximately 58% of FTS's consolidated net sales in FY00. That relationship, along with the consumer's cutback in discretionary spending, and reduced mall traffic in the face of the economic slowdown, has left the market at an arm's length from Footstar for some time now. Since its high of 48.90 last February, FTS has dropped 42%. Despite the pullback, and a seemingly attractive P/E multiple of 9.2x est. FY02 earnings, Briefing.com would suggest investors continue to shy away from FTS due, principally, to its unsettling relationship with Kmart and that company's struggle to increase traffic at its stores.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com [Harry: Interesting, no reaction from NKE, SHOO, SKX, VANS.] 04 Jan 2002 09:58 ET **** Finisar Corp. (FNSR) 13.98 +1.62: Finisar sells fiber optic subsystems and network test and monitoring systems for use in local area networks (LANs), storage area networks (SANs), and metropolitan access networks (MANs). It sells its products to networking and storage equipment makers like Brocade, EMC, Emulex and ONI Systems...CSFB is upgrading the stock this morning as the firm is becoming increasingly confident that FNSR can meet or exceed its forecasts as visibility is improving into Q4 (Apr). There had been concerns that the strength in Q3 (Jan) was a one-time bubble from September order push-outs. However, recent data shows that a solid backlog is building. So what's driving the demand? The ramp of the EMC/ Dell reseller agreement, McData's continued traction in its low-end switches, and Emulex's share gains....Another positive for Finisar is its expanding portfolio of design wins, which should drive growth this year. A recent concern for FNSR was JDS Uniphase's purchase of IBM's optical transceiver business. The purchase price made FNSR look overpriced at approximately 12x CY'01 revenue estimates. No matter how you cut it, the stock's valuation is pricey as a loss is expected even next fiscal year. Finisar is a bet on its technology and future design wins, which looks positive. Also, the company has solid customer relationships for its Fibre Channel and Gigabit Ethernet products. Also, its test and measurement segment and new metro based products are helping to expand its potential market and customer base. Visibility as far out as April is a good sign these days. Valuation will probably keep the stock from adding much to its recent gains, but we expect the stock to do well this year. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com