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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (53442)	1/6/2002 12:01:47 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 53903

<<<Hynix's restructuring committee estimates the value of Hynix's DRAM operations at $10 billion, the report said.>>> biz.yahoo.com

To: ild who wrote (53442)	1/6/2002 7:22:05 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Hi ild; The poster who asked "Now that I have shown some examples where consolidation didn’t make an industry highly profitable I would like MU longs to show me some that did." The last consolidations in the DRAM industry are great examples. It's not like the DRAM industry hasn't been a commodity market for decades already. Another great example is the PC processor industry. Intel's been doing rather well in that, since it consolidated. There used to be dozens of companies in the business, now there's only a couple, and the leader is making good coin. -- Carl

To: ild who wrote (53442)	1/6/2002 12:04:52 PM
From: Ohkami	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Hello ild, DRAM business may continue to be low-margin, regardless of degree of consolidation. Or, it may become higher margin, as Bilow says. But, who cares? From an investor's point of view it doesn't matter. What matters is that this is a highly cyclical business and so the key to investment success is to time the cycles correctly. Any investor who is always long or always short on a cyclical like this will be disappointed. But, you can make fabulous money long on the upturn and short on the downturn. That's all there is to it, no more, no less. And now, IMHO we're clearly somewhere near the bottom of the cycle, so I would definitely not short. Unless, you're speculating on a short-term gain due to the Micron-Hynix negotiations breaking down, which may have a good probability. But, you would have to really be on your feet in case they do put a deal together. As I said in my previous post, this looks like a high-risk, medium-return strategy to me, i.e. not particularly attractive. Ulf