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To: Ohkami who wrote (53447)	1/7/2002 3:05:35 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Hi Ohkami, why are you so sure this cycle is going to be similar to previous cycles? The big change IMO is that demand is not rising as fast as it was in the past. PC industry is almost flat. Many PCs are sold with 256MB. Boxmakers will not let DRAM makers make a profit. They don't want to kill them either.

To: Ohkami who wrote (53447)	1/7/2002 5:57:18 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Hi Ohkami; Re: "Or, it may become higher margin, as Bilow says." I didn't mean to say that DRAM is going to become high margin. DRAM has been low margin for 20 years. The capital costs are absolutely horrendously huge and the lead times for building out plants is also huge, especially compared to the length of time that a plant is profitable (because of further changes to the technology.) The result is a low margin industry that oscillates wildly between being highly profitable and being highly unprofitable. I'm not sure that it's easy to classify it as a low margin or high margin. It depends too much on which quarter you're talking about. DRAM is a very mature industry in that it's been around and going through these cycles for decades, but it's also sort of a very immature industry in terms of how quickly equipment becomes obsolete. -- Carl