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To: Charles Gryba who wrote (153959)	1/6/2002 12:26:43 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Your math seems to be good if the PR rating scales linearly. 1.6 Ghz=1900+, 2200-1600=600 Mhz. 600/66.666=9 100s' 900+1900=2800+ PR rating. Then again, the .18u Athlon is currently shipping at 1.67Ghz. 405 on top of that is 2.338 Ghz which would push it to a 3000+ PR rating is it scales linearly. The problem with all this is that AMD will lag the Northwood all year in Mhz/PR rating. Not good for AMD.

To: Charles Gryba who wrote (153959)	1/6/2002 5:16:48 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Constantine, Re: "SOI is supposed to give 30% over an existing process/geometry. .13 will probably give AMD about 40% which will make the highest pally 2.2Ghz, add 30% to that and you are talking 2.8Ghz+ by end of 2002. What do you think?" 30% for SOI is on the optimistic side. It's if everything is all it's cracked up to be. I won't doubt it until I see it, but I have no reason to believe that it will get this much. In Intel's presentation on FD SOI, they showed PD SOI as only reducing gate delay to 0.9x (11% frequency improvement). intel.com (page 42) Meanwhile, I am still convinced that AMD has used smaller transistor gate lengths on their .18u process, meaning that their .13u process won't get much of an improvement. 40% would definitely be out of the question. Even 10% seems optimistic. My prediction is that AMD's .13u Athlons will reach 1.8-2.0GHz, and their .13u SOI Athlons will reach 2.2-2.4GHz. Further, I believe this will be over the lifetime of the CPU, only achieved by the middle of 2003. By the end of 2002, I don't see .13u SOI Athlons past 2.2GHz (keep in mind that's still 32% faster than the soon to be released Athlon, and it also matches AMD's pace of achieving 200 Quantinumbers [133MHz] per quarter in 2002). event.mediaondemand.com For comparison, I think that Hammer might reach 2.4GHz or 2.6GHz when it launches in Q4 2002 or Q1 2003 (at 3400 Quantinumbers, this puts it on AMD's QuantiTrend line at 2.6GHz - plot it out yourself, if you don't believe me). Northwood will reach 2.8GHz or 3.0GHz by the end of 2002, and possibly have one or two more speed grades to come later in 2003. By then, if Hammer isn't significantly faster than the K7, all those Quantinumbers are going to look rather silly. wbmw