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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (19461)	1/7/2002 8:07:35 PM
From: Bocor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

"the March quarter will herald "modest growth." Seems that with a PE of over 50, "modest growth" is already priced in, ya think?

To: t2 who wrote (19461)	1/7/2002 8:14:00 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<<What do think of this guidance from Altera.>> First of all, trusting Altera guidance has proven to be an expensive mistake over the last year or so. They have had a habit of REguiding (downward). I don't expect that this time, though, but there track record doesn't inspire me. Second of all. . . it's not bad guidance compared to prior quarters. It might even make the sector rally tomorrow. But the thing is, Altera is expecting "modest growth" in the following quarter, yet they are selling at a PE of 51 and a price to sales of 9.5 to 1. That's rich for a company that's barely growing. Will things continue to get better? I'm willing to wait to find out. Assuming that orders will ramp up hard from the bottom is an assumption that I won't make just yet until there's even ancillary evidence that it's happening. As to Corning re-opening 4 plants (not opening new ones, remember, but re-opening ones they'd shut due to over capacity), I seem to recall them saying that they were starting them up again NOT because of any huge influx of orders, but rather because they'd worked through enough of their inventory. Again, I want to see those new orders before I rethink companies in that area. But that's just me, and I might miss the start of the next run up in these stocks. We'll see in time. the freep