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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CpsOmis who wrote (11563)	1/8/2002 5:11:57 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 23153

Interesting commentary from Stephen Roach this week. He sees a fake recovery in Q1 followed by a double-dip in Q2. morganstanley.com I hope I am not just saying this because I agree with him but he seems to me to be one of the smartest people on the street, especially compared to the airheads babbling away on BubbleVision every day. You can read or listen. Being lazy, I listen. John

To: CpsOmis who wrote (11563)	1/8/2002 10:56:45 PM
From: que seria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

A descending triangle is best seen using a time frame for the price intervals that corresponds to the one you want to trade in. So for "swing trades" that may last only a few days, I use 1-15 minute intervals depending upon how many days. KBH looks like this over the last four days: siliconinvestor.com This isn't a picture-perfect triangle, the baseline being uneven, but note how price steadily descends within a triangular shape from the high of four days ago to today's close. The theory behind trading such a pattern (short) is that buying interest is steadily thinning out even as sellers hold the line on price. The expectation (we'll soon see if it plays out here) is that as buying interest declines to the baseline of the triangle, pressure will be downward as selling pressure exceeds buying interest. This is no more than one possible set-up among many, and it may or may not play out as expected (i.e., down). I'll be ready to stop out if it the pattern breaks up rather than down. I use mental stops on the Naz after too many times just getting stopped out only to promptly see price reversals. The market makers seem to play their order books like pianos. Edit: I'm short 4 builders . . . stockcharts.com\|A\|l14 . . . plus I've got LEN puts. I'm thinking all this builder joy is priced in. NVR is defending its price by waving the buyback stick--a real threat with such a thin trader.