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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (67418)	1/9/2002 1:26:53 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

12+ million Pentium 4's in Q4 of 2001 is about 3 times the number of Athlons that AMD produced in the same quarter - about 4 million. I thought the geniuses on this thread said nobody wanted the Pentium 4, Intel couldn't produce the Pentium 4, etc. Looks like a reality check for some of you guys. It is quite remarkable when you consider that the P4 is much larger than Athlon and should yield much less per wafer, all else being equal. The only reasonable explanation is either #1 phenomenal yields at Intel or #2 terrible yields at AMD or #3 AMD is intentionally holding back production at F30. I will leave it as an exercise for the interested reader to determine which one it is. EP

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (67418)	1/9/2002 2:29:04 AM
From: peter_luc	Respond to of 275872

Monica, "12+ million Pentium 4's in Q4 of 2001 is about 3 times the number of Athlons that AMD produced in the same quarter - about 4 million. I thought the geniuses on this thread said nobody wanted the Pentium 4, Intel couldn't produce the Pentium 4, etc. Looks like a reality check for some of you guys." Please do not imply that we are stupid. Everyone here knows that the P4 is selling very well. The drastic price cuts for the P4 and Intel's enormous marketing power made AMD's life quite miserable, at least in Q3. Since I am not an Intel investor I am primarily interested in the question whether there is still enough room left for AMD to prosper. And the report I quoted indicated that Intel will still not be able to meet the demand throughout Q1. Therefore, in all likelihood, AMD might have a good, if not excellent, Q1. I believe that AMD's stock price is still held down to some extent by the fear that AMD would be roadkill soon, that Northwood is going to crush the competition. Now it seems that AMD will indeed be able to weather the Northwood storm throughout Q1. After that, we have to see how the competitive situation will be vis-à-vis Northwood and TBred. After all, for AMD's Q4 CC I do not only expect a positive earnings surprise but also a very positive outlook for this quarter. Therefore, I am seriously considering going into the stock again today or tomorrow. BTW: I also expect a very strong Q4 for Intel. You can see that by my numbers in the SI EPS contest, organized by ptanner. Regards, Peter

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (67418)	1/9/2002 2:29:15 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Monica, what planet are you living on? You really think AMD only sold 4M Athlons in Q4? Try 5 to 6, since Durons have been declining in popularity. Petz