Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Weis who wrote (5432)	1/9/2002 7:04:02 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 13815

Cisco without a net CEO John Chambers is talking up the stock again, and investors are biting. But are they really listening to what he's saying? By David Futrelle NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - I've asked the question before, but I have to ask it again: Is it really news when Cisco CEO John Chambers says something cheery? Tuesday, speaking at Salomon Smith Barney's 12th annual Entertainment, Media and Telecommunications Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona, Chambers said orders are stabilizing and that even in today's tough environment Cisco is beating out the competition. "We're growing ahead of the market and gaining market share," he said. "We used to focus on revenue growth. Now we're really focused on profits." Sure, Chambers also noted that the U.S. market is "still struggling" and said his company has "limited visibility" into the future of the economy -- comments that sent Cisco stock drifting down in after-hours trading when they were first reported Tuesday night. By Wednesday, though, the bulls were out in force, sending Cisco (CSCO: down $0.10 to $20.85, Research, Estimates) shares up nicely for the day. The bull was out in force as well. With fond memories of Cisco's glory days fresh in their minds, some Cisco fans on the message boards were happily predicting that the stock, which has already doubled from its September lows, would double again by March. Others talked confidently of the day when Cisco would hit $100 a share. I learned a long time ago it's not safe to stand between a Cisco fan and the object of his affections; it's just too easy to get trampled. But if you're considering jumping aboard the Cisco express today, you should at least be aware how much will have to go right for Cisco to justify its current valuation -- and go even better for the stock to rise to $40 or $100(!) a share. By conventional measures, Cisco is already pretty pricey, with a P/E of nearly 100 based on estimated earnings for the fiscal year that ends in July 2002. Fans of the stock argue that P/E ratios are misleading in the midst of a downturn, because earnings are unnaturally depressed. Fine. Thing is, Cisco isn't much of a bargain even when you look past the downturn, with a P/E of more than 50 based on earnings estimates for the fiscal year that ends in July 2003. July 2003. A lot of things can happen in a year and a half. By the time Cisco closes its books on 2003, Britney Spears could have lost her youthful good looks. Dolphins could have evolved opposable thumbs and taken over the world. Heck, we might have even found Osama bin Laden. Remember, only a little more than a year ago, a cheerful Chambers was telling Andy Serwer at Fortune that he wasn't worried about a tech slowdown; Cisco's main problem was "managing growth," Chambers said. The point here isn't to mock Chambers because he can't predict the future with pinpoint accuracy. Heck, no one can. That's why experienced investors like there to be a certain margin of safety when they invest -- as insurance in case things go wrong. With the Nasdaq up more than 40 percent from its lows, and a meaningful tech recovery still many quarters off, Cisco investors aren't the only ones investing without a safety net. money.cnn.com

To: David Weis who wrote (5432)	1/9/2002 11:42:19 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13815

add this to that. Try not to get left behind. <g> Seriously, I'm just a simple trend follower. I try to not buy at the top of channels and sell when stocks move out of channel. re: taking profit I haven't done that willing yet since the bottom. I get stopped out after stocks fall out of their channels. re: the market action today I didn't like it. Manufactured reasons for cave at the end are never a good sign. I see the market action today as very telling and indication of over extension and a possible tell to how much money is already committed to the market short term. re: NTAP Looks like it's about to break through it's 25 dayline, next area of support is the lower channel line, mid to lower 20's. re: BRCM BRCM gaps all the time, very gappy stock. <g> I mention a month or so ago, that BRCM would have to make it over 50 and stay there, before I would commit new money to it. I stand by that statement still. re: CSCO and now DELL My market barometer, CSCO has been join by DELL. Both are bounce up against Dec. highs. We need them both to make a move through that area, so the market at large can move forward. b