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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MetalTrader who wrote (11619)	1/10/2002 9:03:05 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 23153

<<This is purely a momentum, liquidity driven market, but in a media environment which is trumpeting the all clear signal loudly...>> SO TRUE....I have been riding with BRCD, RBAK and SEBL...they are great for position trading -- i have moved my limits up steadily and plan to hold all of them a while longer...=) Regards, Scott

To: MetalTrader who wrote (11619)	1/10/2002 10:12:10 AM
From: que seria	Respond to of 23153

Excellent analysis, MetalTrader! While I'm very recently, yet again, weighted to the short side (builders plus BRCM), I'm holding SEBL and BRCD calls to catch the wave and partly offset the long bets. Expect to close, and go short those stocks and others, before expiration next Friday.

To: MetalTrader who wrote (11619)	1/10/2002 11:53:43 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

MetalTrader, Re: <<I believe "money" is looking so closely at the macro issues it is neglecting at it's peril the valuation problem.>> You may be right but if you had thought that the market would be foced to wake up soon and you had sold tech short over the last 3+ months, you would have stepped in front of a moving train. That train bulled right through bad news and more bad news and rallied on small signals that the economy had bottomed. The fact is that the persistance and depth of that move is so strong and deep that it seems to me that its source is something other than lemmings following the nudge-wink advice of manipulative promoters who position themselves to benefit from the other side of the trade. That move took huge amounts of capital over a long period of time and did it while most of us were talking about how low the coming bottom in the tech market was and when it was coming. I'm not saying that you are wrong in your views on valuation. I am saying that the market has been saying that those valuation views are wrong and it has been saying it with a strong voice for some time. I am casting around to try to understand why this has occurred. We can postulate that the market is made up of fools who are soon to be fleeced as soon as greater fools stop buying into puffy analysis. That's fine and maybe it's what has been occurring. I'm trying to look at it anew and ask whether there is any sensible outlook that can justify the last well supported move into tech stocks. A move that continued even as their prices escalated and their fundamentals deteriorated. I do believe that investors that "fly solo" and do their own research, buying, selling, and analysis tend to have a skewed view of the wisdom of the market. That's normally a good thing since contrarinism is a huge advantage when the crowd is wrong and you see it early. I'm just wondering if we aren't so inbred in our analysis of the pitfalls in the economy that we aren't missing some of the positive aspects of the economy that can be seen as legitamate factors to justify a positive view of the market's valuations. If you don't think we are inbred in our thinking, ask yourself how many of us post economic good news as if it is really good news, as opposed to just one more reason for the market to climb to further unrealistic valuations. I think that playing the devil's advocate is something that we can benefit from. It's important to be able to articulate both sides of the argument if you want to maximize the odds that you are right in your position. I haven't seen much of that from any of the threads I read. I am trying to get a handle on whether or not there is smart money that is chasing techs lately, and if it is, what is it that that money sees in the future of techs that we are missing here. I don't want to join the many contrarian investors that missed the bulk of the move in the markets over the last decade because they were sure the market was wrong. A page out of your book makes sense to me. That's the one that says that when the chart and your view of the fundamentals don't match up; read what the chart says, not what the fundamentals say. When the move is as sustained as the one we've seen over the last months in tech, however, I am thinking that a lot of dollars are seeing fundamentals that I'm missing. Does your book have a chapter on that? Ed