To: samim anbarcioglu who wrote (20891 ) 1/11/2002 1:47:28 AM From: LTK007 Read Replies (3) | Respond to <<on this one consumer spending is the only damn thing propping up the market. Everybody agrees that this recession is a businness recession. It is the businesses that went into an inventory overflow (which is now all melted down at the moment, which is why the industrial metals futures are all runnning up). This recession was not about a consumer demand recession. It was entirely a business (B2B if you prefer). recession, The whole time, consumer demand kept up and did not fall. Of course it would. The consumer was all but in fully employed. In macroeconomics 101 they teach (still) that 6.5 is considered average employment level for an economy. We had 3 - 4 % employement back in 1997 - 98 - 99. That was off the charts..>> and everybody should know this strange reversal of recession pattern will cause a second hit when the exhausted debt loaded consumer pulls back.This presumption that the consumer will just keep spending is the most complacent conceit i know,and it is a rampant,mass complacency,and that gives me great confidence in just how wrong this view is and i am merely listening to whistling in a graveyard.Study economics 007 please and the diminishing returns on sucking blood out of stone.The consumer will slow down spending or become slaves of credit agencies spending their lives servicing debt(nice choice isn't it).
