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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (27763)	1/12/2002 7:44:17 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Because in his other alias he is doing the printing....g

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (27763)	1/13/2002 12:32:28 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

what makes you think there will be a large squeeze? I have 5 or 6 things that I can put on the side of the ledger for a rise here and 2 or 3 for a decline. Of the ones on the rally side, the most important one I see is that sizeable divergence in s-t sentiment. Bearishness is ticking up while the market is holding lofty levels. Some of the measures I follow are back to early-mid November levels -- 85 S&P points below where we are now. That's a big divergence. An example... I have begun to more rigorously track some data points since October. One of them is the OEX PutVolume/CallVolume. This OEX p/c measure is volatile, but 10/20 day moving averages have been climbing pretty hard since the December top. We have not declined very far from that top, but tons of puts are being moved. Not bullish that. Hell, we've had 4 or 5 days since the end of December where this p/c is over 2! That's people betting short with their money, not their opinion. (And yes, I have read Swenlin's take on these high readings -- he says smart money is buying in prep for a decline.) Again, I would mention that I would be the first to say that survey ratios are way too optimistic, but that won't affect much what the market can do for a week or two. Nothing has yet happened. We have to pop for this to work. Given my current position, flat, I will only lose a little pride, and not very much of that, if we decline from here.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (27763)	1/13/2002 1:04:21 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

In the end, whether or not we get a squeeze is not important. It's a wiggle in the big picture. The next really big opportunity that matters is getting short. I meant to add to that previous post Velo, that one of the biggest things on the negative side of the ledger is the banks. I believe that the banks and other finanicals will lead the next big decline (a banking/credit crisis). I think it'll happen very fast when it hits. The RUMX formation definitely worrisome. It has to turn from right here or I call off the squeeze warning. Things are so precarious, hell, it could hit Monday morning. The banks had a nice breakout on the 4th and now it's being given back. Not only that, but they have been choppy and ugly this entire incredible advance, building a sloppy, bearish wedge. They are now at the bottom of that wedge. If they can not turn up, then we'll have two things that I would never bet long against: 1) A breakout failure 2) A bearish wedge breakdown Nope, if the banks crater on Monday, especially if they gap down on bad news, I'll still be flat come Monday afternoon (or short -g/ng).