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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (13392)	1/13/2002 12:18:18 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

In my estimation, the blood has not yet even begun to run. Unemployment is going to get a lot worse. Deflation is showing its ugly head. No signs of growth. The torrents of liquidity opened up by the Fed have had no impact at all on the recession though they were released more than six months ago. The economic fundamentals point to more and more pain. Inexplicably, traditional methods of stimulating the economy have not worked. Each recession is different but this one seems more protracted and long-lasting than any in recent memory. The 1991 recession, though a tough one, was short lived. This one is both sharp and long-lived. It may have begun a lot earlier than previously thought. Despite the signs of a worsening economy, which seems impervious to being stimulated through traditional means, the stock market pundits, brokerages, etc., appear to be moderately optimistic. In my view, this optimism is not justified. The blood will run when this becomes obvious. If Soros' reflexivity takes hold on the bear side, there will be a severe and sustained bear market. Then, and only then, will it make sense to be a contrarian bull and buy irrationaly depreciated stock. Probably won't happen for a few months.

To: pezz who wrote (13392)	1/13/2002 12:53:31 PM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<Everyone believes in it so it works against itself,thus one must do the opposite and go with the consensus....After all who would expect them to be right?>> pezz: IMO, in the short term the most popular theory, the consensus, is correct. Contrarians are correct at only the point of a massive shift from the most popular viewpoint. That said, I think there is way too much, "no time like the present to invest; thank goodness we made it through the bear; now let's get back to the business of quadrupling our money" in the market right now. Which makes me a contrarian and wrong as long as the present bullish trend continues but right, I think, in the mid-term. For awhile. ; ) .....VVVVVVVV