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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4867)	1/15/2002 7:27:59 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

Hi, Frank - Apologies for the slow response. On the question of 3G/4G (mobile) vs. portable (nomadic) vs. fixed wireless connectivity, I have no idea how it will break out, in the future. Assuming that some minimally acceptable standard of transmission/reception is achieved (in any of the proposed methods), the answer is based as much on commercial success as it is on technical sophistication. Will superior technology (whatever that means) dictate commercial success? Not necessarily. How much fixed or mobile telephony will be "bled off" by fixed/nomadic wireless? Unknown. How critical will the provision of voice be to fixed/nomadic wireless? Unknown - but many knowledgeable people indicate that it is likely to be crucial - ie, that the absence of voice will doom a given fixed/nomadic wireless network to failure, while not guaranteeing its success. How critical will data be to mobile users? What will they pay for it? Those questions are still unanswered. How will the voice/data vs. data/voice market segregate? Unknown. What role will the incumbents play as the CO gets bypassed, and v6 lurches to ubiquity? What part will the Microsofts and AOLs play? What sort of margins will established, and emerging competitors enjoy? Thin, I suggest. Everybody's going to have their spoon in someone else's soup. New towers, renting space on old ones, rooftop space, repeaters: yikes. Where would I put my money in these circumstances? Elsewhere. Regards, Jim