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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: runes who wrote (58832)	1/15/2002 4:20:26 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

runes: Welcome to the thread. If you've followed the thread for a couple of years, you know there are a wide variety of investment styles and outlooks represented here. It will be good to have another industry voice on the thread. My take is, the current consensus of investors is: there will be an upturn, in the general economy, and in semi-equip bookings, about mid-2002. Bad news, till then, is in the stocks. Bad news continuing after that, is not. Over the last few weeks, I've become marginally more optimistic, that we've seen the bottom in the stocks for this downcycle. This optimism is dependant on a general economic recovery in mid-2002, and the war going well. Both of those events seem likely, but by no means certain. It was encouraging, that AMAT bounced in late December, at around 40, indicating that 40 is a floor again, as it was for most of 2001. I considered adding then, but held off. With a bit more certainty now, I'm a bit more likely to add on the next dip to 40. I expect we won't sustain any move over 50, till semi-equip bookings begin a sustained uptrend off the 600M/month trough levels. That will happen, at the earliest by June 2002, and at the latest by January 2003, IMO.

To: runes who wrote (58832)	1/15/2002 4:27:13 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thanks for your thoughts/observations, and welcome to the thread! I worked in the semi equip industry until 1999, so it's good to hear a perspective from someone who also has that background.

To: runes who wrote (58832)	1/15/2002 5:31:03 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Runes, Welcome to the AMAT Thread! Since you have been lurking here for several years, there's no need for "Orientation." You will be exchanging Ideas with the Better minds around. I've been here since Dec 1996 and I can say this thread is getting better each passing day. It got Magic like the US got that magic in attracting the Better Minds around the world. Thanks for whatever contribution you can give us. Enjoy your stay.