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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (27854)	1/17/2002 11:30:17 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Why not be a perma bear during a multi year long bear market? <VBG> .. or maybe -ng- ....

To: Paul Shread who wrote (27854)	1/17/2002 11:31:48 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I mean that the baby boomers haven't yet even started to pull their retirement out of the market ..

To: Paul Shread who wrote (27854)	1/17/2002 1:20:25 PM
From: dawgfan2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

>>When does The Street begin to realize that the 'rebound' will be at best a weak one?<< Merrill beating the drum for TYC: Tyco International (TYC $47.95; A-1-1-7) Volatility Risk: Low 01A $3.05; 02E $3.70; 03E $4.40 • The market has pushed Tyco’s stock down almost 19% YTD. • The shares now trade at 13.3x our old GAAP CY02E EPS of $3.60. We are aware of no other large industrial companies that has a P/E this low. Due to concerns about the recession in the electronics industry, investors may be discounting a lower estimate. • If Tyco’s FY02 $3.70 EPS estimate were reduced by 10% to $3.33, then the shares would still only trade at a relatively low 14.4x FY02 EPS. • Recognizing that the economy remains in a recession and assuming no further weakening in Electronics beyond current expectations, we remain highly confident of Tyco’s ability to achieve strong EPS growth of 21% to $3.70 in FY02. • We are expecting, at least 17%, 1H02 EPS growth and a heavier weighting of EPS into the 2H02 because of easier comparisons, favorable seasonality late in the year, further improvement in Tyco Capital and the benefits of the restructuring in Electronics. • Bear in mind that very few companies are expected to have any growth to minimal EPS gains in 2002, yet some of them trade at significantly higher P/E multiple. • In our opinion, fundamentals, outside of Tyco Electronics, are very healthy. • Tyco Capital’s margins are up because of the elimination of $6B in problem assets from CIT’s failed purchase of Newcourt, a 16% reduction in the headcount from 7,500 to 6,300, which aided in the achievement of $150M in lower costs, and the benefit from lower interest rates, which has not yet totally shown up in earnings yet. • Due to company’s focus on being the low cost provider, Tyco is employing digitization wherever possible. For example, a consumer can design a home security system on line. • We estimate free cash flow of at least $4B in FY02 -- up 60% from FY01. This would be a strong showing. • In our view, Tyco shares have significant upside potential. (P. Young)