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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (59003)	1/17/2002 1:29:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

RtS, Obviously I wish us both lots of luck with our ST long positions here. But allow me to play devil's advocate, since AD is unusually quiet right now. 1) On an intraday basis, the sell pressure has flattened which means 538/540 should serve as initial support followed by a subsequent floor at 520. That was yesterday. Today the magic number, 40, is critical and the jury is still out. 2) Yahoo Historical Prices For AMAT chart.yahoo.com. That is history. How do you interpret it? When I look at a bar chart and connect the lows, I see a very tired 4 month uptrend that is in the process of breaking down. bigcharts.marketwatch.com 3) Capex will be expected to swing higher... Eventually, but the question is when. The answer is only partially in and it suggests not in 2002. Advanced Micro Devices on Wednesday told a financial analyst conference call that it will increase capital spending this year by 20% to $850 million. By contrast, archrival Intel Corp. Tuesday said it was cutting its 2002 capex 24% to $5.5 billion. ebns.com That's a capex gain of $140M for AMD and a capex loss of $1,800M for INTC, on aggregate a capex decline of 1.66B from the relatively well-heeled logic duopoly. You could be right that the 39.25 floor may well hold until AMAT reports, but by Valentine's Day, AMAT investors may feel the need to be held. <g>