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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (13645)	1/18/2002 1:30:56 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

I am not holding myself out as a prognosticator, this is just a hunch, or maybe it's a guess, but the fallout from Enron's collapse is going to be spectacular. We ain't seen nothing yet. We have no idea who the counter-parties were on the various derivatives, but they are going to unwind like a ball of string leaving nothing in the center. I have pointed out, numerous times, that the Fed and the BIS have been struggling to bring accountability and transparancy to the derivatives market since the 1998 LTCM debacle, so anyone who wants to point the finger at the Fed in general and Greenspan in particular is just blowing smoke. I also predict that this is going to give California all the ammo it needs for its cases against energy companies, the ones that claim that the California natural gas shortage of a year ago was faked. Who's going to believe anything Enron says now? The political fallout is going to taint both the Bush administration and the Clinton administration, as well as anyone who's taken major contributions from Enron, e.g., Lieberman.

To: Ilaine who wrote (13645)	1/18/2002 2:54:50 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Lots of new things are learned in a Boom. 1) They learned lots of new tricks during the oil boom years. Later those guys climbed the corporate ladder and used in Europe or the US the same tactics they used in Brazil, Nigeria or the Philippines. 2) Then came the Asian boom. The Asian boom taught novel tricks and they are applied. 3) Tech bubble boom has taught the guys new tricks. Be quite sure they will be applied when the next Abracadabra creates the new Boom.