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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/18/2002 2:04:07 PM
From: Murrey Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
if bored, then dont respond... beauty of threads

jimmy...no need to play the radio/TV simile. Of course ignore is also an option. Yes, the whole thing is an atrocity and all involved should, and will, get theirs. And, of course, after much hand-wringing some mightily needed reform will ensue -- along with the rest of the "take your shoes off, Mr. President (no profiling taking place here, nosirreee) bullsh*t.

what do you find interesting, my good man? NTAP and storage?

Made great money on NTAP between late Sept. and late Dec. Right now? How many ways can one spell CASH. I think we've got some downside to revisit before we go much higher. JMO



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/18/2002 3:54:10 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
One Number That Won't Lie

If you want to understand what's really going on behind the headlines, follow the return on capital.

FORTUNE
Monday, January 21, 2002
By Geoffrey Colvin

Political journalists have a saying that rarely leads them astray when they're trying to get to the bottom of a complicated story: Follow the money. In business journalism we're more specialized. Our mantra is--or ought to be--follow the capital. Right now, as always, that's the best way to understand what's really going on behind some of the biggest stories around.

The fact is that most of us, readers as well as writers, don't follow the capital nearly as doggedly as we should. We get seduced by other angles--technology advances, corporate politics, marketing campaigns, market share battles. They're all important and definitely fun to read about, but they're not how the score is kept. Besides, focusing on capital takes one into the realm of corporate finance, and a lot of people, including a shocking number of CEOs and board members, never took Finance 101. But anyone can understand that business success is ultimately about earning more money than your capital costs. With that in mind, take a fresh look at some of today's most important business stories.

The Hewlett-Packard/Compaq deal. Why did investors despise this deal from the minute it was announced in early September? In the business of personal computers, servers, and storage, both companies are getting kicked around by Dell. Their deal rationale was that together they could beat the bully.

But look at the capital. HP and Compaq have similar costs of capital, about 11%. Their returns on capital are each below that, which means ultimately they're failing. By combining, could they find efficiencies and new revenues that would push their return on capital above 11%? Possibly, though some analysts doubt it. Then look at Dell: Its return on capital is 46%. Now if HP and Compaq were to merge and nudge the return up above 11%, do you suppose Dell, from its superior position, might find a way to pound that return back down while maintaining its own return far above its capital cost? That's why investors hate the deal.

The Enron debacle. As Enron's stock spiraled up into the 70s and 80s in the wacky days of Net mania, investors focused on many factors: the huge popularity of Enron Online, the company's ability to securitize almost anything, from broadband capacity to weather, the stream of hotshot MBAs to Houston. What they apparently didn't focus on was capital. Perhaps the most remarkable fact about Enron in retrospect is that even in its glory days--when the stock was near $90, and CEO Jeff Skilling was arguing that it should be at $126--the company was not earning its cost of capital. Its return was a stunningly low 6% to 7%--and that doesn't reflect the capital we've since learned Enron was keeping off its balance sheet through financial sleight of hand. The real return was even lower.

But couldn't investors have been looking ahead to better returns down the road? Some companies, especially fast-growing young ones, hold a realistic promise of dramatically higher future returns, which can justify a seemingly high stock price. But Enron was no startup. It was No. 7 on the Fortune 500. Back when its stock was in the stratosphere, a simple glance at the return on capital would have told anyone trouble was ahead--even before we knew about the financial shenanigans.

The SEC's attack on Ebitda. When the Securities and Exchange Commission warned investors in December to view any company's "pro forma" financial statements with "healthy skepticism," it advised them to "be particularly wary" of Ebitda--earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Excellent advice. "Pro forma" is an official-sounding Latin phrase that means "earnings the way we like 'em," as distinct from earnings stated in accordance with accounting rules. What's so insidious about Ebitda--a pro forma measure favored by many companies, including AT&T, Hughes Communications, and AOL Time Warner (parent of FORTUNE's publisher)--is that it states earnings so as to leave capital's good effects in place while stripping the bad effects away completely.

For example, when a company takes on capital by borrowing money, Ebitda will report any return the company might earn on that capital but will exclude its cost--the interest. If the company buys another company, say, by issuing new shares, Ebitda will report the new profits but won't mention the depreciation and amortization that necessarily come with them. And while depreciation and amortization are very, very far from perfect as a measure of capital costs, you have to admit that ignoring them is bizarrely one-sided. It's as if a football team issued an excited press release announcing it scored 21 points on Sunday--without mentioning what the other team scored.

Our economic system isn't called gross-marginism or market-shareism or Ebitdaism. It's capitalism. As we read (and write) the financial news of the coming year, let's resolve not to forget that.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/18/2002 5:41:59 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
GM Calls Fuel Cells The 'Holy Grail'

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
January 18, 2002
Filed at 4:57 p.m. ET

DETROIT (AP) -- Automobile industry experts call it ``the holy grail'' -- a new type of fuel that would make gasoline obsolete and replace car fumes with a harmless mist.

But even with the partnership announced between the federal government and automakers to develop fuel cells that breath hydrogen, it could be a long time before drivers can trade in their gas guzzlers for cars that run on the new technology.

Fuel cells, first used by NASA in the space program, create electricity through a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen. If pure hydrogen is used as a fuel, the only emission is water vapor.

Hydrogen is an extremely flammable gas, however, requiring heavy tanks that can withstand collisions. The industry is working to develop lighter tanks that also are crash-worthy.

The alternative to hydrogen is more easily available fuels, such as gasoline, methanol, propane or natural gas. But using those fuels in the cells requires an extra piece of equipment called a reformer to extract hydrogen from them, adding heat, cost and weight. The vehicles produce some polluting emissions, although to a lesser extent than internal combustion engines.

The other major challenge to what automakers call ``a hydrogen society'' is a lack of a refueling infrastructure, or hydrogen filling stations.

One of the goals of the partnership announced at the North American International Auto Show last week, called Freedom CAR, is to develop such an infrastructure

``Because the government is going to focus on hydrogen as the ultimate fuel, the debate over whether we use gasoline, methanol or hydrogen becomes less important,'' said Thaddeus Malesh, an expert on fuel cell technology with the market research firm J.D. Power and Associates. ``They can let the manufacturers focus on using hydrogen, which is the cleanest and most effective fuel.''

The fuel cell partnership, announced by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, replaces a Clinton administration program to develop high-mileage vehicles.

``If this works this is the holy grail, this is the breakthrough,'' GM president and CEO Rick Wagoner told an industry conference Monday. ``We've done enough work, we think there are risks, and the payoff is not just for the automotive OEM's (original equipment manufacturers), it's the whole economy.''

Environmental groups such as the Sierra Club hail the advent of fuel cells. But they are skeptical of the motives of Freedom CAR, believing it is just a way to stall legislation that would raise fuel economy standards, called CAFE, corporate average fuel economy.

``Now that they're coming out with Freedom CAR, they say, `Don't raise CAFE now, wait 20 years,''' said Sierra Club Washington representative Ann Mesnikoff. ``The partnership makes no pledge to make or sell anything to the American public.''

One reason the automakers cite for the delay in mass producing fuel cell vehicles is the cost.

When the first prototype fuel cell vehicles were shown in the late 1990s, the automakers estimated the engines would cost roughly 100 times more than an internal combustion engine.

Malesh says that cost has been cut 90 percent since then, but is still too expensive for the mass market.

GM chairman Jack Smith says having the government's vast research capabilities involved in fuel cell research could help bring the price down even further.

``It's like night vision in a car,'' he said. ``The vision system came from the M1 battle tank, but that system cost $20,000. We had to get the cost down to $1,500 a vehicle.''

Aside from the lack of an infrastructure and high cost, not enough is known about how fuel cell vehicles will operate in real world situations, says Ballard Power Systems Inc. (news/quote) chairman and CEO Firoz Rasul. Ballard produces fuel cells for Ford Motor Co. (news/quote) and DaimlerChrysler AG (news/quote).

Rasul says fuel cell vehicles will be put through real life applications beginning next year in California in response to that state's zero emission regulations.

``The program will confirm how they operate and will look at consumer reaction,'' Rasul said.

DaimlerChrysler introduced a fuel cell minivan last month called the Natrium that runs on arguably the cleanest fuel -- sodium boro-hydride, a chemical compound related to borax, which is used in laundry soap.

At the North American International Auto Show now under way in Detroit, GM is exhibiting a fuel cell vehicle it calls the Autonomy.

The car's chassis is a computer docking station of sorts. Only 6 inches thick, four small fuel cell motors -- instead of one large engine -- each power one wheel.

Mechanical braking and steering systems are replaced by those operated electrically. GM says Autonomy is its idea of ``reinventing the automobile'' for the 2020 timeframe.

``We created a compelling concept to exploit the technology and create many reasons why customers would want to buy this vehicle,'' said Chris Boroni-Bird, a leader in GM's fuel cell program.

``We want to create a pull and a demand for this technology,'' he said.

Pulling the public away from its long-honed habit of pumping petrol may prove to be almost as daunting as selling it on the technology.

``One hundred years of the internal combustion engine is hard to overcome,'' said Malesh. ``It's the gold standard by which you measure everything: cost, service, availability and performance.''

But Ballard's Rasul called Freedom CAR an ``assertive'' action that will move more automakers toward building fuel cell vehicles.

``I see the federal position one of setting a long term strategic policy and funding,'' Rasul said.

Each of the U.S. automakers plans to produce limited numbers of fuel cell vehicles, mostly powered with gasoline or natural gas, in the next year or so, but 2010 is still the soonest any of them will estimate hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicles could be available.

^------

On the Net:

Ballard Power Systems Inc.,http://www.ballard.com

J.D. Power and Associates, jdpa.com

General Motors Corp. (news/quote),http://www.gm.com

Ford Motor Company, ford.com

DaimlerChrysler AG, daimlerchrysler.com

Chrysler Division,http://www.chrysler.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/18/2002 6:28:03 PM
From: limtex  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
JW - Repeat of last year and the year before. Here we go again.

3% per day down.

Best,

L



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/18/2002 10:34:12 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
The Spreading Enron Stain

Friday January 18, 5:13 pm Eastern Time
SmartMoney.com - Special Report
By Robert Hunter

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, my editor and I got together to think of a fresh way to approach the Enron (Other:ENRNQ) scandal for my column this week. We wanted to try to offer investors some guidance as the sordid details of Enron's off-balance-sheet activities continue to unfold.

I decided that I would argue that while the Enron blowup is a shocking example of greed, cunning and guile, it was an isolated incident. The underpinnings of our financial system are still fundamentally sound.

Now, I'm not so sure.

It's true that Enron was unlike any company that makes its living — or a big chunk of it — in the derivatives markets. Derivatives? Wasn't Enron primarily an energy trader? Yes, but many energy trades involve forward sales (akin to futures) and options. And Enron dealt in dozens of other, more exotic derivatives markets, from credit to weather to advertising. Derivatives were a bigger part of Enron's revenue stream than they are at any other publicly traded company that deals in them, even powerhouses like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS - news), Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH - news) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD - news).

Yet Enron didn't resemble other derivatives dealers in the least. Wall Street firms that are active in these highly sophisticated, highly lucrative and highly risky markets have elaborate risk-management systems in place to prevent Enron-like disasters from happening. Ever notice that most of the derivatives blowups you've heard about in the past — from Orange County to Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - news) to Gibson Greetings — involved relatively unsophisticated investors being burned by Wall Street bandits? (The delicate term for that on the Street is ripping someone's face off.) Yes, Barings Bank and Kidder Peabody were brought down by derivatives — but those cases involved rogue traders circumventing their company's risk-management systems for fun and profit. Because derivatives can blow up in their faces, dealers pay slavish attention to the risk they undertake. Risk managers are some of the best-paid people on Wall Street. Their job is to keep their companies from going boom — and by and large, they succeed.

Some years ago, as scandals started becoming more common, derivatives became something of a four-letter word. Wall Street came up with an ingenious fix, one that just happened to add some safety to the derivatives world: In the early 1990s, dealers began creating AAA-rated offshore subsidiaries that do some of their bidding for them. (No big investment bank carries that rating, or anything close.) To get those ratings, the subs had to be incredibly well capitalized and maintain impeccable books. That helped allay certain nervous counterparties, as well as institutional investors permitted to deal only with triple-A-rated entities. Even in the unlikely event that, say, Goldman Sachs imploded, its triple-A sub would still have the cash on hand to settle its bets, which often mature far into the future. Nowadays, big banks and insurers often have several of these entities. And that helps them lower their overall risk profiles. Everyone wins: The corporate trader gets to deal with a safer partner, while the bank's positions, on an aggregate level, are less risky. In the derivatives world, subsidiaries exist solely in the service of the corporate parent.

Enron was an entirely different story. While many of the infamous LJM partnerships engineered and managed by Andrew Fastow, Enron's then-chief financial officer, were set up to help Enron manage its risk, they were woefully undercapitalized, and ended up adding to Enron's aggregate risk rather than mitigating it. Many of the special-purpose vehicles Enron created were capitalized largely through Enron's own equity. When Enron's stock price fell below certain levels, that triggered huge equity payments to the private entities. The result: The entities that were set up to help Enron manage its risk exposed Enron's shareholders to even more risk because of the trigger mechanisms. Rather than serving the company proper, they ultimately destroyed it. Credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's calls such trigger deals ``insidious.''

The question is, was Enron so unique? On Dec. 20, S&P said that four energy traders in particular — NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG - news), PG&E National Energy Group (NYSE:PCG - news), TXU (NYSE:TXU - news) and Williams (NYSE:WMB - news) — faced the possibility of damaging trigger deals. Dynegy (NYSE:DYN - news) and Calpine (NYSE:CPN - news) decided to raise cash to shore up their balance sheets after Enron blew up. Were they frightened by what newly skeptical investors might find in their income statements? While there's no evidence of Enron-like shenanigans at any of these companies, the existence of equity-diluting trigger deals is troubling.

Before Friday, I thought it unfair to tar other companies because of what happened at Enron. Then I saw a document obtained by Staff Editor Matthew Goldstein that undermined many of my assumptions about the case. When Enron was unraveling, the story being told on Wall Street was that no one knew what was going on, and that, in any event, Enron's depravity existed in a vacuum. Now I know that isn't true.

According to LJM2 partnership documents from 2000, the cast of characters involved in Enron's off-balance-sheet activities is much bigger than previously thought. Limited partners included Chase Capital, G.E. Capital, J.P. Morgan Capital, Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER - news), Dresdner Bank, AON, Credit Suisse First Boston, Morgan Stanley and First Union Investors, an all-star list of Wall Street insiders. Given the porous walls separating equity research from investment-banking operations, the suggestion that analysts at these firms knew nothing about the LJM partnerships before they blew up simply isn't credible. On Oct. 22, the day Enron announced that the Securities and Exchange Commission was inquiring about its third-party transactions, CSFB maintained its Strong Buy rating. Were analysts trying to keep Enron's stock high enough to prevent other trigger events?

Equally troubling, those documents revealed that LJM2's auditor was PricewaterhouseCoopers. That means that at least two of the Big Five accounting firms had intimate knowledge of the goings on inside Enron or its outside partnerships. (Arthur Andersen was Enron's auditor.) The implications of all of this for the U.S. accounting system are staggering. Enron's off-balance-sheet activities weren't the mystery they've been portrayed to be.

And that, unfortunately, leads me to wonder how many other Enron-like disasters are lurking in the shadows of corporate America. What's striking is how long Enron was able to get away with these transgressions without someone blowing the whistle. People at Wall Street's biggest firms had intimate knowledge of these dealings, yet no one said a word. When Jeffrey Skilling, Enron's then-CEO, resigned in early August once Enron's stock fell below the trigger level for at least two LJM2 entities — Raptor and Osprey — no one said a word. When Enron wrote down shareholder equity by $1.2 billion in October, no one said a word. Wall Street can keep a secret far better than anyone could have imagined.

How many other secrets is it keeping?



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/19/2002 4:55:46 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Judge to Andersen: Stop Shredding

Friday January 18, 10:20 pm Eastern Time

HOUSTON (Reuters) - A Texas judge on Friday ordered accountancy firm Andersen to halt the destruction of documents relating to its auditing of energy trading firm Enron Corp. which collapsed into bankruptcy late last year.

State district Judge Caroline Baker granted the order to attorneys representing investors and Enron employees who hope to recoup millions of dollars they lost on holdings of Enron stock which became almost worthless as the company's crisis deepened.

Andersen has acknowledged that it destroyed Enron-related documents after Enron disclosed in October that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was looking into Enron's extensive use of off-balance sheet financing vehicles.

Earlier this week Andersen said it would fire its lead Enron auditor, alleging he ordered Enron documents be destroyed. An attorney representing the auditor said he had done nothing wrong.

Andersen said shredding stopped after Andersen received a subpoena from the SEC in November. Enron has since fired Andersen as its auditor.

Andersen attorney Rusty Hardin said Friday's order was superfluous because documents were no longer being destroyed.

``We would have to be suicidal to be doing anything further. The Justice Department wants our documents, Congress wants our documents, the SEC wants our documents and all the people suing us want our documents,'' he told reporters.

Attorney George Fleming, representing the investors and employees, said the order provided an important tool to help prove the plaintiffs' allegation that poor auditing by Andersen played a large role in the losses they incurred.

``We feel we now have an enforceable order for the first time in this litigation that would entitle us to get sanctions against Andersen should anybody get the bright idea, like they did before, to destroy the documents we need,'' he said.

Enron and Andersen are facing dozens of lawsuits from angry investors and employees who lost huge sums of money as Enron's stock fell from $33 in mid-October to less than $1 by late November.

Enron is currently under investigation by several congressional committees and federal agencies, including a criminal probe by the U.S. Justice Department.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/19/2002 5:03:36 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Folks are still upset with Greenspeak....what's new...?

Message 16931930



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/19/2002 5:28:37 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
What I MEANT to say:

Part of the confusion over the speech was due to the subtlety of Greenspan's intended message that the recession was likely to end soon, but that a quick, strong rebound was not assured.

washingtonpost.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (46665)1/19/2002 8:37:03 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Enron got U.S. help with India

Posted on Sat, Jan. 19, 2002
By DANA MILBANK and PAUL BLUSTEIN
The Washington Post

WASHINGTON - The White House coordinated a multifront effort last year to help Enron Corp. settle a dispute with the Indian government that the energy company hoped would deliver $2.3 billion as it was running out of cash in the weeks before declaring bankruptcy.

According to government records released Friday, President Bush's National Security Council led a "working group" with officials from various Cabinet agencies to resolve Enron's troubles over a power plant venture. Enron, facing nonpayment by its Indian government customer, wanted to sell its interest for $2.3 billion.

The administration's efforts - which included Vice President Dick Cheney's conversation with an Indian official and was to involve a personal appeal by Bush to Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee - appeared to end Nov. 8. That's the day Enron filed documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission revising its financial statements to account for $586 million in losses. It's also the day that Enron Chairman Kenneth L. Lay talked by phone with Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill about the company's dire finances.

The documents released Friday provide new details about Bush administration efforts to aid Enron, the once high-flying company that filed for bankruptcy law protection in December and now faces Justice Department and congressional investigations. The India episode demonstrates the ability of Enron - once one of the nation's most aggressive and innovative firms, and one of the biggest political donors - to command the attention, and sometimes the intervention, of the nation's highest government officials.

The Bush administration intensified government actions just as Enron's financial problems grew severe and the power plant venture reached a moment of crisis. Those efforts stopped when the scope of Enron's spectacular collapse was becoming known worldwide.

Administration officials say their efforts were appropriate and unremarkable, intended primarily to protect U.S. taxpayers' $640 million interest in the troubled Dabhol power plant. The Clinton administration, starting in the mid- 1990s, also had backed Enron in its dispute with Indian officials.

White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said Friday: "It's not uncommon for leaders of the United States, no matter what party they are, to help make certain that if contracts are to be awarded overseas, they're given to Americans. There's a lot of competition."

But Jon Sohn, the international policy analyst for the environmental group Friends of the Earth, said Enron received more government help with its projects than other companies - under both the Clinton and Bush administrations.

The group calculated that Enron received $2.4 billion for its overseas energy projects between 1992 and 2000 from the Overseas Private Investment Corp. and the Export-Import Bank of the United States in the form of loans, insurance and guarantees.

The $3 billion power plant, located south of Bombay, was built as India began to open its heavily state-run economy and allow foreign firms greater investment opportunities. The nation's biggest foreign investment by far, the plant was highly controversial from the start. It drew opposition from environmentalists, Indian nationalists and even the World Bank.

The project is "not economically viable," Heinz Vergin, the World Bank's country director for India, wrote in April 1993, rejecting a request for a bank loan.

But some U.S. taxpayer- financed institutions helped finance the project. OPIC provided $160 million in loans and $180 million in risk insurance; the Export-Import Bank lent the project $300 million. The agencies say such projects create U.S. jobs and exports.

Enron sought to sell its 65 percent interest in the Dabhol plant after years of squabbling with the plant's lone customer, the Maharashtra State Electricity Board. In a Sept. 14 letter to Vajpayee, Lay said he wanted $1.2 billion for the cost of the company's investment and $1.1 billion for the purchase of offshore lenders' debt.

The $2.3 billion total, he wrote, "strikes me as exceptionally reasonable when compared to the size of our legal claim," which Enron had put at $4 billion to $5 billion.

When Lay wrote the letter, Enron's stock had plunged to $32.76, from a high of $90 in August 2000. The drop left Enron scrambling for cash to keep its far-flung businesses afloat.

At the same time, the administration working group was trying to resolve the dispute between Enron and India.

"The acute lack of progress in this matter has forced Dabhol to rise to the highest levels of the United States government," OPIC President Peter Watson said in a Nov. 6 message to a top Vajpayee aide, Brajesh Mishra. "I ask that you give this matter serious and immediate attention."

The documents do not make clear whether the Bush administration was pressuring India to release Enron from the project or to reach another settlement.

Fleischer said the administration's actions had nothing to do with Enron political contributions. He noted that the Clinton administration had acted in a similar manner on Dabhol.

Indeed, according to the Center for Public Integrity, Lay accompanied Clinton's Commerce secretary, Ron Brown, on a trip to India in 1995.

By last summer, documents show, the National Security Council was intimately involved in discussions about the plant. A June 28, 2001, e- mail from an NSC staffer announced that there was "good news" regarding Enron and Cheney: "The Veep mentioned ENRON in his meeting with Sonia Gandhi" - the president of India's opposition Congress Party.

An intragovernmental e- mail sent on the afternoon of Nov. 8 and labeled "Importance: High," said, "President Bush can not talk about Dabhol as was already mentioned." The email, released by OPIC officials after they deleted the sender's and recipients' names, also said that Bush's top economic adviser, Lawrence Lindsey, a former Enron consultant, "was advised that he could not discuss Dabhol."

Fleischer said Lindsey did not get involved because the White House counsel warned of a possible conflict of interest. Bush did not get involved because "it was a matter of not rising up to his level," Fleischer said.