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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (1941)	1/18/2002 4:37:56 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

re: cdma20000 Revision A Still Hung Up on the Synch Channel From the most recent TSG-C Chair’S January 2002 Report to 3GPP2 SC (SC-20020124-005) ... >> The status of cdma2000 air interface releases is noted as follows: • cdma2000 Release A All SDO ballot comments have been resolved with the exception of those impacted by the Sync Channel issue • cdma2000 Release B V&V has now been completed - still awaiting completion of Release A The following documents will be published soon: * C.S0001-A through C.S0006-A cdma2000 Release A Ready for release - Awaiting resolution of Sync Channel issue * C.S0001-B through C.S0006-B cdma2000 Release B Ready for release - Awaiting resolution of Sync Channel issue SYNC CHANNEL ISSUES During the September 2001 Plenary level conference calls, an objection to including resolution to the Sync Channel problem was raised by members of the Korean delegation. The Korean delegation claims the Sync Channel will cause operational incompatibilities in their Release 0 phones and has adamantly objected to the inclusion of the Sync Channel fix under any circumstances. Since the November 2001 SC meeting: • TSG-C has held several meetings to make a “final” decision on the Sync Channel including an interim Plenary conference call on 28 December 2001. To date, the TSG has been unable to reach consensus on either including or excluding the Sync Channel solution into either cdma2000 Release A or cdma2000 Release B. Several motions have been made to resolve this issue including one (1) that failed to achieve the 71% majority by 0.03%. • At the December 2001 meeting, Motorola agreed to do testing on Release 0 phones to determine the extent of the problem. An AdHoc was formed at that meeting with the following objectives: -- Work with the Korean delegates to establish acceptance criteria associated with the test results. -- Receive and evaluate the text results on or about 21 December 2001 to compare the results to the criteria of acceptance. -- Report their findings on the test result evaluation to an interim Plenary. The interim Plenary conference call of 28 December 2001 was set to review the output of that AdHoc and make the “final” decision on the Sync Channel. • At the interim plenary, the Sync Channel AdHoc reported the following: -- The testing showed that pre-addendum release 0 mobiles would have problems getting 3G service in networks that implemented the sync channel fix. Motorola claimed this problem could be mitigated by modifying the transmission frequency/order of overhead messages. -- Analysis showed a potential problem with mobile stations being able to originate 3G packet data calls in networks implementing the sync channel fix. Motorola also claimed that it could be mitigated by performing service negotiation from 2G to 3G packet data service. -- The Sync Channel AdHoc report noted that the Sync Channel fix is optional to all carriers for both cdma2000 Revision A and Revision B. Therefore, this fix should not be deployed in Korea if known problems exist. The Korean carriers indicated that they would consider the Sync Channel fix to be mandatory if it is included in the next releases of cdma2000. -- TSG-C now has ready to release versions of cdma2000 Release A and cdma2000 Release B, both with and without the Sync Channel fix. • Motorola has submitted a proposal to two (2) regional variations of C.S0005-A v6.0 -one (1) with and one (1) without the Sync Channel fix. This contribution was left open at the Plenary level pending SC direction. • As a result of the delays due to the Sync Channel issue: -- One (1) company has submitted a contribution recommending to defer cdma2000 Revision B capabilities until after 1xEV-DV is published. This contribution was held open until the February 2002 meeting in Seattle so that SC direction on the Sync Channel can be determined. -- Another contribution has been received recommending that the TSG freeze features in Release C (the 1xEV-DV release) to only those agreed to in July 2001. Those features include the following: • Reverse Link Code Assignments (replacing code assignments) • VoIP • Authentication - Incorporation of 3GPP AKA • Quality of Service • Adaptive T_TDROP (WG2, WG3) This strategy is being challenged by a contribution from the Asian service providers to include the IP broadcast feature in cdma2000 Release C << Stay Tuned. This SHOULD resolve this month or worse case next at the February 4-8 2002 meeting in Seattle. Then one of these days 1xRTT will buzz right along at peak rates up to 307 kbps. - Eric -

To: Eric L who wrote (1941)	1/20/2002 5:11:11 PM
From: sisuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

Thanks for the reference to the H&Q research report on Nokia. I read all 42 pages of this rather pessimistic take on Nokia prospects for the next two years – with a neutral rating and price target of $23. It’s that time of the year when the analysts speculate on the future while lacking any good data to validate their views – especially as we’re on the verge of a recovery from a recession and on the verge of big changes in wireless technology. H&Q’s pessimistic view is based on the following assumptions; 1. Global handset growth has peaked and will not recover strongly in the next two years 2. GPRS take-up will be slow over the next two years; IXRTT growth great 3. CDMA growth is going to accelerate with respect to GSM and TDMA. They wouldn’t be just a bit biased based on the fact that they make a market in Qualcomm and have a buy rating on it, would they? Some interesting points to ponder:  They forecast an overall 2002 growth in handset sales of a meager 5% - but project CDMA sales to grow by 15%. They show huge growth for 1X sales – 42 million units, while projecting “tepid” GPRS sales of a mere 47 million units. An interesting horse race!  They don’t expect handset replacement sales to rebound much following the recession: (despite the intro of new products and technology),  Average % replacement upgrade sales – 41.5% in 98/99; 20% in 00/01; 27% in 02/03.  They forecast a drastic slowdown in GSM handset sales – Annual sales growth averaged 96.6% in 98/99; expected average annual growth of 16.4% in 00/01; forecasted average annual growth of 9.4% in 02/03.  CDMA does better – averaged 160% annual sales growth in 98/99 (from a much smaller base); expected 30.6% annual growth in 00/01; forecasted rebound to 13.8% in 02/03.  TDMA looks bleak – 158%/year in 98/99; 31.7%/year in 00/01; a negative 5%/year in 02/03.  And their forecasted split of handset sales looks like this – in the year 2000, GSM with 72%; CDMA with 17.1%; and TDMA with 10.9%. Actual year 2001 data are incomplete. Year 2002 forecast is GSM with 65.6%; CDMA with 23.3%; and tale dragger TDMA with only 11.1%. How does this square with your message number 1845 on 12/16, which talked about TDMA outgrowing CDMA through the third quarter of 2001? And concerns over CDMA growth problems with Verizon, Sprint, Japan and Korea?  Another way of looking at relative growth – in 98/99, GSM + TDMA handset sales were 4.9 times CDMA sales. In 00/01, H&Q data shows GSM + TDMA sales at 4.3 times CDMA sales. Their forecast for 02/03 shows GSM + TDMA sales as only 3.2 times CDMA sales. At this rate, CDMA sales will probably equal those of GSM + TDMA in another 5 years or so! Oh worry, worry, worry! Sisuman