To: Perspective who wrote (28849 ) 1/23/2002 6:09:20 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (5) | Respond to i can't get the links to work, but i do know what the charts look like, and i agree on the potentially ominous implications. in case you're asking yourself WHY the broad aggregates have declined, the refi boom came to a screeching halt recently (well, at least compared to what went on before...) while at the same time, deflationary money destruction has gathered pace, in the form of Enron , Argentina, etc. claims waving goodbye. while the Fed continues the pumping, a somewhat Japanese-like reluctance on the part of borrowers and lenders to create new credit may be in its formative stages here. note that we've seen an absolutely incredible last-hurrah consumer debt expansion binge in qu.4, in fact outdistancing every previous record by miles , mainly due to the "how to best shoot ourselves in the foot" zero financing offered by the auto manufacturers (car leases are not counted as consumer debt by the Fed by the way! a major failing,and they also don't count margin debt, and thus underestimate consumer debt by several hundred billion dollars - thanx to Bob Bronson for pointing this out), one of which has imho one foot firmly planted in the grave already (Ford is the culprit) and the GSE-led post 9/11 refi excess that likewise put every previous reliquefication effort to shame.
