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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain Jack who wrote (28013)	1/19/2002 7:15:25 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 52237

germany (most of EU) slipping into recession. Argentina...DOA. Mexico-recession. Japan==>Depression. US: well, you know!

To: Captain Jack who wrote (28013)	1/19/2002 8:56:41 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

While I agree with you that AG made a problem worse, we were headed here anyway and I think his raising rates helped to soften the blow. Note how yields had inverted in 98 yet investors proclaimed this time is different even though every yield inversion in history had been followed bya sharp recession. Even when AG was raising rates, the mantra was this time is different, tech is immune. Had AG not raised rates and brought the market down, we would have eventually imploded from stratospheric levels and probably gone into a prolonged Depression rather than a recession. I just posted the chart from the 10 December Fortune magazine that shows market valuations chained to GDP growth on our site. We are still over 60% over valued. AG has started the decline in a slow and orderly way to give anyone with any sense of reality time to get out. 5 years from now, hopefully none of us on SI will be in the crowd of the perma bulls whining about stocks being down another 70% or so from where we are now. There is still a HUGE disparity of capital allotment in this market where everyone is still chasing the glamour stocks while ignoring the ones with real growth. Well, ... not everyone. Hasnt anyone noticed how dividend plays have gained strength despite the bubble years where the mantra was how old fashioned and stupid dividends were? Have you priced food stocks lately? You know those dumb companies that make money and that people have no choice but to continue using like CAG, SFD etc? How about DRYR just since September? Larry may be touting the techs that doubled but they still earn no money and will most likely be gone in 10 years and exist as only a foot note in a history books about the bubble but there are real stocks out there that make real dollars and pay you returns on your money. AG is trying to shock the market into the realization that this is supposed to be a stock market where you put money in the hopes that you will get long range returns of more than you put in and in the mean time help companies with SOUND business plans expand. Too many forgot that basic concept of capitalism and began thinking this was a swap meet for pokemon cards. Warren Buffet din't get rich by day trading and most people now days won't either. It isnt AG's fault the market is dropping, Steve is right, it is the fault of the idiots that bid it up so high in the first place and still think we will return to those days where the E in PE stays the same but the P can just keep growing forever. Good Luck, Lee